regional qld — QLD1
The Queensland spot price sits at $96.69/MWh against a 24-hour average that tracked the classic Sunday arc — overnight lows in the $75–$85/MWh band, a solar-driven midday trough where prices collapsed to near zero (touching $0.97/MWh across multiple intervals around 07:30–09:30 AEST), and an evening ramp back above $90/MWh from around 14:00 AEST onwards. The current price reflects that post-sunset thermal re-entry, with demand sitting at 5,741 MW — well below the overnight peak of around 7,400 MW observed earlier in the period.
The generation mix is almost entirely black coal at 2,576 MW, with hydro contributing just 54 MW and OCGT output negligible at 0.16 MW. Solar has dropped to zero with sunset. This coal-dominated overnight stack drives a carbon intensity of 0.8621 tCO2/MWh — one of the highest readings of the day cycle. Renewable penetration sits at just 2.04%, down sharply from the midday peak where rooftop and utility solar pushed the renewable share above 20% and intensity fell as low as 0.6889 tCO2/MWh around 12:00 AEST. For sustainability managers tracking Scope 2 exposure, every megawatt-hour consumed overnight tonight carries near-maximum grid emissions.
Predispatch forecasts point to meaningful price relief from 07:00 AEST (21:00 UTC). The most recent forecast run prices the 07:00 AEST interval at $77.53/MWh, with load window modelling showing the 08:00 AEST half-hour as an "excellent" opportunity with indicative prices as low as $0.84/MWh — consistent with the solar generation profile seen today. Flexible loads and battery charging strategies should target the 07:30–10:00 AEST window, where near-zero and low single-digit prices are structurally recurring on clear-sky Sunday mornings.
The critical market notice to watch is AEMO's suspect LOR2 reserve notice (Market Notice 135427) flagging a potential Lack of Reserve Level 2 in Queensland between 16:30 and 17:30 AEST on Tuesday 24 March. AEMO is investigating whether the condition is valid. If confirmed, expect price volatility and potential intervention in that window Tuesday afternoon. Separately, AEMO has issued a series of "Prices Subject to Review" notices under NER clause 3.9.2B for multiple overnight intervals in today's early morning, covering intervals from around 02:30–03:10 AEST; the 02:45 AEST interval has already been confirmed unchanged. Traders holding positions in those intervals should note review outcomes are still pending for several surrounding intervals. A lightning-driven contingency reclassification of the Mudgeeraba–Terranora 110 kV lines (QLD1) was issued overnight but subsequently cancelled at 01:14 AEST, with no constraint sets invoked or residual network impact.