regional nsw — NSW1
The NSW1 spot price sits at $102.12/MWh with demand at 6,777 MW, representing a notable elevation against the overnight trough that dipped as low as $81/MWh in the early hours. The 24-hour price profile tells a clear story: the market ran above $100/MWh through the pre-dawn window (14:00–16:30 AEST), collapsed into the solar-driven midday trough where prices bottomed at $5.54/MWh around 19:25 AEST, then recovered sharply through the evening as solar generation fell away and thermal plant re-established price setting. The current level reflects that post-sunset thermal premium, with black coal dominating at 5,867 MW against a total generation stack of approximately 6,600 MW dispatched locally.
The generation mix is heavily coal-dependent at this hour. Black coal is contributing 5,867 MW, hydro 502 MW, wind 88 MW, and solar 144 MW, with gas CCGT and OCGT both sitting at 0 MW. Renewables are contributing just 10.65% of generation — wind and solar combined deliver only 231 MW — consistent with a Sunday evening profile where rooftop and utility solar has fully ramped off and wind output across NSW remains weak at 88 MW. Carbon intensity sits at 0.7863 tCO2/MWh, tracking near the top of today's range; the overnight low reached 0.7645 tCO2/MWh during the midday solar window when renewable penetration peaked at 13.12%. With no gas generation dispatched and coal carrying virtually the entire thermal load, the grid stress score of 73.8 reflects a system running on a narrow generation mix with limited flexibility headroom.
The predispatch forecast points to a material price correction from the current $102.12/MWh. The most recent predispatch run (issued 06:01 AEST) targets $82.07/MWh for the 07:00 AEST interval, down from earlier forecasts of $91–92/MWh for the same window as successive runs progressively revised the outlook lower. Load window data reinforces this trajectory: the 07:00 AEST half-hour is flagged as a "good" buying window at approximately $57–65/MWh, the 07:30 AEST window improves further to "excellent" at $25–40/MWh, and the 08:00 AEST window — coinciding with morning solar ramp — is flagged "excellent" at $1–11/MWh. Traders and flexible load operators should note this rapid price descent as rooftop and utility solar begins its morning ramp from approximately 06:30 AEST onwards.
On market notices, AEMO has issued a significant volume of Manifestly Incorrect Inputs reviews across NEM-wide intervals spanning 21–22 March, though all investigated intervals confirmed prices unchanged. The most operationally relevant active notice is a suspect Forecast LOR2 condition in Queensland for 16:30–17:30 AEST on 24 March 2026 — this does not directly affect NSW dispatch today but warrants monitoring for potential interconnector flow impacts on the QNI link later in the week. Early-morning NSW intervals for 02:45–03:10 AEST today remain under active review for Manifestly Incorrect Inputs, though the 02:45 interval has already been confirmed unchanged.