NEM Overview

Grid stress sits at 73.8/100 and price stability scores just 29.8/100, signalling a market under meaningful pressure this Sunday morning. Spot prices are tight across the NEM with SA1 leading at $109.71/MWh, TAS1 at $106.72/MWh, NSW1 at $102.12/MWh, VIC1 at $99.41/MWh, and QLD1 the cheapest at $96.69/MWh. The inter-regional spread is modest at roughly $13/MWh, but the uniformly elevated pricing across all regions on a weekend — when demand is typically softer — reflects the low renewable penetration score of 15.4/100 and a carbon intensity score of just 34.4/100. It is after dark across the mainland, so solar is contributing zero MW in every region.

Coal and gas are carrying the load. NSW1 demand sits at 6,777 MW with black coal supplying 5,867 MW and renewables — wind at 88 MW and hydro at 502 MW — covering just 10.65% of the region. QLD1 demand is 5,741 MW, almost entirely met by 2,576 MW of black coal, with renewables at a negligible 2.04%. VIC1 runs on 1,118 MW of brown coal plus 112 MW of gas OCGT, achieving 17.49% renewable penetration through 289 MW of wind. SA1 is the cleanest mainland region at 43.66% renewable, with 218 MW of wind doing the heavy lifting alongside 282 MW of gas. Tasmania is generating at 100% renewable with 354 MW of hydro and 24 MW of wind, though the Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is currently exporting 0 MW to Victoria.

On interconnectors, the NSW1-QLD1 link is binding at its import limit of -301 MW — Queensland is pushing 301 MW south into NSW at the constraint boundary, which is suppressing QLD prices relative to NSW and tightening available headroom on that corridor. VIC1 is exporting 449 MW to SA1 via V-SA and 100 MW to NSW via VIC1-NSW1. The N-Q-MNSP1 (Directlink) is carrying a minor 17 MW northward flow.

The key forward risk for today is Tuesday's LOR2 notice for Queensland: AEMO has flagged a suspect Lack of Reserve Level 2 condition in QLD1 between 16:30–17:30 on 24 March, coinciding with the weekday evening ramp. That notice remains under investigation. Separately, a cluster of price review notices for early-morning intervals today — from 02:35 through 03:10 AEST — are still active under Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs), with the 02:45 interval now confirmed unchanged but several later intervals still pending resolution. Traders with exposure to those intervals should confirm final settlement status before close.