Interconnector Watch

QNI is the standout story this interval, sitting hard against its import limit at -301.13 MW versus a limit of -301.12 MW — binding, at full capacity, and flowing north from NSW into Queensland. With QLD clearing at $96.69/MWh against NSW at $102.12/MWh, the $5.43/MWh spread is modest but the constraint is real: QNI cannot pass another megawatt north, and any additional NSW surplus has nowhere to go in that direction. No constraint notices are active in AEMO's market systems, but the binding status speaks for itself.

Heywood (V-SA) is carrying 448.78 MW westward from Victoria into South Australia, sitting at 75% of its 602.21 MW export limit — not binding, but a meaningful flow. SA's $109.71/MWh price sits $10.30/MWh above Victoria's $99.41/MWh, which is driving that westward push and would likely see Heywood utilisation climb further if the spread widens through the morning. Murraylink (V-S-MNSP1) adds a further 45 MW into SA in the same direction, though well within its 125 MW export limit and not binding.

VIC-NSW is flowing 100.19 MW southward from NSW into Victoria — roughly 31% of its 321.39 MW import capacity, unbound and unremarkable. The direction aligns with NSW pricing above Victoria. Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is at zero flow this interval, leaving Tasmania's $106.72/MWh price isolated from the mainland; with TAS above both VIC and QLD, any resumption of southward export would apply marginal downward pressure on Victorian prices. Directlink (N-Q-MNSP1) is carrying just 17 MW northward into Queensland, well within its 97.9 MW import limit and not influencing outcomes. Losses data are unavailable across all interconnectors this interval.

The dominant market dynamic right now is the QNI binding constraint locking in the NSW-QLD spread, and the SA premium pulling sustained westward flows across Heywood. Traders with cross-regional exposure between NSW and QLD should treat the northern pathway as closed at current dispatch; any NSW generation excess will price into VIC or sit unshifted.