commodity demand vic — VIC1
Victoria's spot price sits at $99.41/MWh with total demand at 4,400 MW — a combination that reflects the grid's evening load settling into its post-peak plateau. The price-demand relationship today tells a clear story: overnight demand troughed around 4,055–4,115 MW between 1300–1430 AEST with prices hugging the $91.37/MWh floor, while the day's thermal peak of 5,162 MW at 0645 AEST drove prices to their session high of $224/MWh. The sensitivity is pronounced — each 1,000 MW demand increment above the 4,000 MW base correlates with roughly $30–50/MWh of additional price pressure once thermal plant is on the margin.
Today's demand trajectory has followed the classic Sunday autumn arc. From a late-morning low of around 2,810 MW (2145 AEST) — when rooftop solar was suppressing net demand and spot prices went negative — demand has climbed steadily through the evening as solar output dropped to zero and heating loads responded to 14.8°C conditions with a heating demand index of 3.2. The current 4,400 MW level represents a 57% surge from that solar trough, and prices have moved in lockstep from sub-zero to the current ~$99/MWh band. Renewable penetration has fallen sharply from a daytime high above 37% to just 21.9% now, with brown coal at 1,118 MW carrying the baseload and OCGT at 112 MW providing margin support.
The forward price signal is moderately constructive for the near term. AEMO's latest pre-dispatch forecast prints $89.25/MWh for the 0700 AEST interval — a modest step down from current levels — suggesting dispatch is not anticipating a significant demand lift overnight on this mild Sunday. Load window data flags $59–66/MWh pricing at 0700 AEST and sub-$40/MWh conditions by 0730 AEST as solar re-enters the supply stack, with some windows forecast as low as $1.21/MWh by 0800 AEST. Demand-side managers and flexible industrial loads should note that the next optimal consumption window opens around 0730–0800 AEST when the solar ramp drives prices sharply lower, replicating this morning's pattern where demand fell below 3,000 MW and the market cleared at or below zero.