commodity demand qld — QLD1

Queensland spot sits at $96.69/MWh with demand at 5,741 MW — a Sunday overnight reading that is roughly 1,550 MW below the evening peak of around 7,390 MW reached earlier in the overnight period. That demand trough is already driving a visible softening from the $100–105/MWh prints that characterised the pre-dawn window between 14:30 and 16:30 AEST, confirming the classic inverse relationship between load and price on a low-activity weekend day. The grid stress score of 73.8 out of 100 is elevated relative to the modest demand level, pointing to supply-side tightness — predominantly black coal at 2,576 MW with renewables contributing just 2.04% — rather than demand pressure as the primary price driver this morning.

The demand trajectory across today's data tells a clear story: load peaked near 7,390 MW around 06:30 AEST, collapsed through the solar window to a trough of approximately 4,760 MW around 20:30 AEST as rooftop PV suppressed grid demand, then rebounded sharply into the evening to the current 5,741 MW. That solar-driven demand suppression produced the day's most dramatic price action, with spot touching $0.97/MWh at its lowest as rooftop generation cannibalised grid load. The evening demand rebound — solar output now at zero — has pushed prices back above $96/MWh and the most recent intervals show prices nudging $100/MWh before easing slightly to the current level.

Forward price forecasts for the 07:00 AEST interval are clustered at $77.53/MWh, consistent with expectations of continued demand softness in the early morning hours of a Sunday. The load windows data reinforces this: the 08:00 AEST window carries a forecast as low as $0.84/MWh as solar generation ramps back and demand remains suppressed. Traders should note the active LOR2 suspect notice for Tuesday 24 March between 16:30 and 17:30 AEST — that is the window where demand typically climbs toward 7,000 MW as commercial and residential loads converge at dusk without solar offset, and with current reserve margins already flagged as suspect, any demand upside on Tuesday afternoon carries real price spike risk.