Carbon Forecast

Tasmania is running at 0.00 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable generation — hydro and wind carrying the entire load, sustained across the full dataset with no fossil dispatch at all. South Australia is the next cleanest at 0.31 tCO2/MWh with 44% renewables, wind supplying 218 MW against a gas CCGT and OCGT mix of around 282 MW combined. Queensland sits at the dirty end of the NEM at 0.86 tCO2/MWh with only 2% renewable penetration — 2,576 MW of black coal and negligible OCGT are driving that figure, and it has been essentially flat all day with no meaningful solar or wind contribution displacing baseload. Victoria is at 0.91 tCO2/MWh with 22% renewables; 1,118 MW of brown coal anchors the dispatch stack, with wind at 289 MW providing the only material clean contribution after solar drops to zero — intensity climbed sharply through the overnight period, peaking above 1.00 tCO2/MWh, and is only now moderating as wind recovers. NSW sits at 0.78 tCO2/MWh with 11% renewables, black coal at 5,867 MW dominating the stack and hydro at 502 MW doing the heavy lifting on the renewable side; solar is negligible at 144 MW.

Looking at the day's trajectory, the data covers the period from 07:00 AEST through to 06:30 AEST this morning. Victoria's best carbon window occurred mid-morning around 10:00–11:00 AEST, when renewables touched 37–38% and intensity dipped to 0.73 tCO2/MWh — that window has passed and intensity has since climbed back above 0.91 tCO2/MWh as solar fades and brown coal holds firm. South Australia's cleanest intervals ran through the early morning (05:30–08:00 AEST) with renewables above 60% and intensity as low as 0.18 tCO2/MWh; the current 0.31 tCO2/MWh reading reflects a partial wind recovery after a mid-afternoon trough where intensity pushed toward 0.48 tCO2/MWh. NSW showed a brief improvement around 09:00–09:30 AEST as renewables nudged 13%, but has since settled back in the 0.78–0.79 tCO2/MWh band with no green window in prospect tonight.

For carbon-sensitive load scheduling, Tasmania is the clear first choice for any flexible or interruptible load — zero-emission generation is continuous and shows no sign of changing. South Australia offers the second-best opportunity; wind is recovering into the early morning hours and SA's overnight profile consistently delivers sub-0.25 tCO2/MWh windows. Operators in Victoria and NSW should defer discretionary loads — EV charging, battery cycling, electrolysers — into the solar window from approximately 08:00–11:00 AEST tomorrow morning, which is when renewables historically peak in both regions. Queensland offers no credible green window today; with renewables barely above 2% and coal baseload locked in flat, there is no point in the dispatch curve where carbon-sensitive scheduling delivers meaningful abatement in that region.