regional vic — VIC1
The Victorian spot price sits at $124.33/MWh at 16:30 AEST, maintaining an elevated position that has been sustained since around 14:30 AEST as demand builds through the Saturday afternoon period. Total demand is 4,667.5 MW — relatively modest for Victoria, reflecting the weekend and mild autumn conditions (15.3°C, heating demand of just 2.7°C-degrees). The current price represents a significant premium over the overnight trough, where prices collapsed into negative territory between roughly 22:30 and 01:55 AEST on the back of peak solar and low weekend load, bottoming at -$63.90/MWh at 23:30 AEST.
The generation mix is heavily dominated by brown coal, which is producing 1,113 MW and accounting for the vast majority of local output. Gas OCGT is running at 112.25 MW, hydro at 97.72 MW, and wind at just 68.04 MW — a very weak wind contribution given the near-calm conditions (3 km/h wind speed, zero wind potential). Solar is contributing 0 MW, consistent with 92% cloud cover and zero solar potential this morning. Renewables are delivering a negligible share of the current dispatch stack. The most recent carbon intensity reading sits at 0.7886 tCO2/MWh at 06:30 UTC (16:30 AEST), with renewable penetration at 29% — that figure reflects a period with stronger wind earlier and does not align with the current generation snapshot, which implies intensity is likely tracking higher at present given the brown coal dominance and minimal renewables.
Predispatch forecasts are unanimous in pointing to a material price reduction through this evening's trading window, with the 07:00 AEST target interval (21:00 UTC) forecast at $98.16/MWh and the 07:30 AEST interval at approximately $97/MWh. Grid stress scores at 81.9 and a renewable penetration score of just 15.6 confirm today is a high-intensity, fossil-heavy dispatch day. Sustainability managers should note that carbon performance will remain poor until wind conditions improve — the grid scores a carbon intensity rating of only 53.8 out of 100. Three active market notices are in play: prices for the 10:05 interval were confirmed unchanged following review (notice 135148); a NSW network augmentation commissioning of the Eraring BESS No.2P 330 kV line at 10:52 AEST is noted (135150), with potential interconnector flow implications; and a GSH production environment outage is scheduled 31 March–1 April (135151), relevant for gas-exposed participants hedging via the Gas Supply Hub.