regional tas — TAS1
Tasmania's spot price sits at $107.67/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, riding the morning demand ramp with total grid load at 953.59 MW. That current price is above the overnight trough of $96.06/MWh seen through the early hours, but consistent with the $106–$108/MWh band that has dominated across the past 24 hours. A brief spike to $161.03/MWh at 14:35 AEST is the standout outlier in recent history, lasting a single interval before snapping back — likely a transient dispatch constraint rather than a sustained supply event. The price structure is notably stable by NEM standards, with gridIQ's price stability score sitting at 60.6.
Generation is running almost entirely on hydro, with 324.78 MW dispatched from hydro plant and just 8.78 MW from wind. Gas OCGT is contributing zero. Hydro and wind together account for 100% of in-region supply, which puts renewable penetration at 100% and carbon intensity at 0 tCO2/MWh — Tasmania's grid is operating as a zero-emissions island this morning. With solar potential at zero and wind potential at just 0.5 in current 6.8 km/h conditions, hydro is carrying the full load-following burden across today's morning ramp. Heating demand is elevated at 6.7, consistent with the 11.3°C air temperature, which will continue to support demand through the day.
Predispatch forecasts point to a meaningful step-up, with prices forecast at $141.51/MWh for the evening period — a lift of roughly $34/MWh above the current spot. That signal has been firm across multiple forecast runs, indicating AEMO's dispatch engine is consistently pricing in tighter conditions for the evening trading window. Traders holding exposure into the evening peak should treat $141.51/MWh as the base expectation; any further demand lift or Basslink constraint could push realised prices higher. Grid stress is scored at 81.9, the highest of gridIQ's tracked metrics for this region, which warrants attention as demand builds through the day.
Active market notices are not directly Tasmania-specific. The PRICES UNCHANGED notice confirms the 10:05 interval on 20 March was reviewed and found free of manifestly incorrect inputs. A GSH production environment maintenance outage is scheduled 31 March–1 April (19:00–05:00), which affects gas market interfaces but has no direct bearing on Tasmania's hydro-dominated dispatch today. Sustainability managers can note the sustained 100% renewable read; the zero carbon intensity has held without interruption across the full carbon history dataset provided, making Tasmania the cleanest wholesale dispatch profile in the NEM this morning.