regional sa — SA1

The SA1 spot price sits at $138/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, consistent with the elevated overnight band that has dominated since around 00:10 AEST when prices locked into the $124–$170/MWh range. This is a marked step up from the prior evening's solar-driven trough — prices briefly went negative between 10:50 and 15:25 AEST on Friday, bottoming at -$8.33/MWh at 15:15 AEST — underscoring the classic SA diurnal swing between rooftop solar suppression and gas-dominated overnight recovery. The 24-hour price average across the full history sits well above the $110/MWh gas floor, with multiple spikes into the $160–$240/MWh range concentrated around the pre-dawn and morning ramp periods.

The generation mix at 06:30 AEST is entirely thermal and wind: gas CCGT is contributing 217 MW, gas OCGT 184 MW, and wind 143 MW. Solar is producing 0 MW — consistent with pre-sunrise conditions. Total scheduled generation sits at approximately 545 MW against a regional demand of 1,260 MW, with the balance supplied via interconnector imports from Victoria. Wind is covering roughly 26% of local generation at this interval, with gas accounting for the remainder. The most recent carbon intensity reading (06:30 AEST Friday, the latest available) sits at 0.2854 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 49% — that figure reflects the prior afternoon's strong wind and solar contribution and will deteriorate as today's morning gas ramp takes hold. Expect intensity to climb toward 0.40–0.48 tCO2/MWh through the 07:00–10:00 AEST window based on the pattern seen in the preceding 24 hours.

Predispatch forecasts point to prices consolidating around $110–$111/MWh through the morning and into the early afternoon — a step down from current $138/MWh levels — consistent with rooftop solar beginning to suppress grid demand as the day progresses. Saturday's lower commercial and industrial load profile reinforces this: demand will likely follow the same rapid descent seen yesterday, with grid demand potentially falling below 600 MW by midday as rooftop PV peaks. That sets up conditions for negative or near-zero prices through the solar window (approximately 10:00–15:30 AEST), providing battery charging and demand response opportunities. The evening ramp back toward $110–$138/MWh is expected as solar withdraws and gas re-enters to cover the demand recovery toward 1,400+ MW.

Three active market notices are in force. The most operationally relevant is the PRICES UNCHANGED notice (135148) confirming the 10:05 interval price review on 20 March found no manifestly incorrect inputs — prices stood. A GSH production environment outage is scheduled 31 March–1 April (19:00–05:00 AEST), affecting all Gas Supply Hub interfaces including Trayport and the DAA; gas market participants should plan submissions accordingly. A NSW network augmentation (Eraring BESS No.2 330 kV line) was commissioned at 10:52 AEST on 20 March — no direct SA constraint impact flagged, but the addition of large-scale storage capacity on the NSW side of the interconnector may influence flow patterns and SA import pricing during high-renewable periods today