regional qld — QLD1

Queensland's spot price sits at $99/MWh at 16:30 AEST, with demand at 5,789 MW — a relatively light Saturday morning load profile. Tracing the last 24 hours, prices tracked a clear diurnal pattern: overnight they softened into the $75–$85/MWh range through the pre-dawn trough, firmed through the pre-dawn hours to hit $104.80/MWh at 15:30 AEST before easing back as solar generation ramped across the NEM. The current $99/MWh level reflects a tighter pre-sunrise supply stack now that solar has dropped to zero and the grid is running on thermal overnight, with prices that have been gradually climbing since 13:30 AEST from a low of around $92–$96/MWh.

The generation mix at 16:30 AEST is almost entirely black coal, with 2,468 MW dispatched. Hydro contributes a modest 86 MW and gas OCGT a negligible 0.16 MW. Solar sits at zero, as expected before sunrise. Renewable penetration is consequently near the floor: the most recent carbon intensity reading is 0.8514 tCO2/MWh with renewables at just 3.25% of supply — a figure that will not improve materially until solar ramps after approximately 07:00 AEST. Queensland's daytime renewable penetration peaked around 18–20% in recent midday intervals before dropping sharply as solar withdrew post-15:00 AEST, underscoring the region's persistent coal dependence outside daylight hours and its structural carbon intensity challenge.

Predispatch forecasts converge tightly around $105–$107/MWh for tonight's evening peak, with the most recent runs pointing to $105.81/MWh. This is consistent with the seasonal pattern: Saturday evening demand in Queensland typically builds from around 17:00 AEST as residential load rises, with coal carrying the bulk of the stack. Traders should note the price trajectory is upward from current levels — the $99/MWh spot represents a likely trough before the evening ramp. Grid stress scores at 81.9 and carbon intensity at 53.8 out of 100 signal a moderately stressed, heavily carbonised grid for the session ahead.

There are no active market notices directly affecting Queensland dispatch. The two live notices relate to a NSW network augmentation (Eraring BESS No.2P commissioned 20 March) and a Gas Supply Hub production maintenance window scheduled 31 March–1 April — neither has direct QLD dispatch implications today. AEMO confirmed that the 10:05 AEST trading interval prices from 20 March remain unchanged following a manifestly incorrect inputs review.