regional nsw — NSW1
The NSW spot price sits at $104.89/MWh at 16:30 AEST, with demand at 7,141 MW — a Saturday morning profile running well below the weeknight peaks of 9,000+ MW seen earlier this week. Price has been remarkably stable through the early hours, holding in the $104–$106/MWh band since around 14:00 AEST after overnight lows in the low-to-mid $80s/MWh. The 24-hour price range spans from a trough near $79/MWh in the overnight trough to an early-morning peak of $154/MWh around 16:30 AEST yesterday, with the current level sitting at the lower end of today's trading range.
Black coal dominates the generation mix completely, contributing 6,481 MW — approximately 91% of the 7,141 MW load. Hydro is the only meaningful dispatchable complement at 620 MW (8.7%). Renewables are contributing a marginal 98 MW combined, with solar at 75 MW and wind at just 24 MW. Gas (CCGT and OCGT) is offline entirely. Carbon intensity sits at 0.79 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at just 10.18% — both reflecting the coal-heavy overnight-into-morning stack. The latest weather data shows 82% cloud cover at 18.1°C with negligible wind, explaining the near-zero solar and wind potential; no meaningful renewable uplift is expected through the morning.
Predispatch forecasts are unanimous at $104.89/MWh through the forecast horizon, signalling NEMDE sees no supply tightness or demand step-change ahead on this Saturday. The load window analysis confirms a "fair" quality signal across all forecast intervals, with isolated "good" windows appearing around $87–$93/MWh suggesting some softening is possible as the Saturday daytime solar and demand profile develops. No price spike risk is flagged in the near term.
Three active market notices are relevant. The most operationally significant for today is notice 135150 confirming the commissioning of the Eraring BESS No.2 330kV transmission line in NSW at 10:52 AEST on 20 March — this adds battery storage connectivity at Eraring and is a positive development for grid flexibility. Notice 135148 confirms prices for the 10:05 interval are unchanged following a review, with no manifestly incorrect inputs found. The GSH maintenance notice (CHG0108132) covers a Gas Supply Hub outage 31 March–1 April and has no near-term electricity market impact. Grid stress scores at 81.9 indicate a moderately loaded system despite the low absolute demand, consistent with the coal-dominated, low-flexibility mix currently on dispatch.