NEM Overview

SA leads the NEM on price at $138/MWh, with VIC close behind at $124.33/MWh, while QLD is the cheapest region at $99/MWh. NSW sits at $104.89/MWh and TAS at $107.67/MWh — a $39/MWh spread from top to bottom that reflects genuine regional supply differences rather than any transmission constraint, with no interconnectors currently binding. The V-SA link is carrying 476 MW westward into South Australia, providing meaningful support to that market, while VIC1-NSW1 is at its import limit of 103.67 MW flowing into Victoria. Queensland is actually exporting 368 MW south into NSW on the QLD-NSW interconnector, keeping northern prices suppressed on what is a mild Saturday morning.

Renewable penetration across the NEM is low at 15.6% on the gridIQ score, which is consistent with the generation data. This is a pre-dawn or early-morning read — solar output is zero across all regions, and wind contribution is minimal: NSW has just 23.53 MW of wind, VIC 68 MW, SA 143 MW. The NEM is leaning heavily on black coal in NSW (6,481 MW) and QLD (2,468 MW), brown coal in VIC (1,113 MW), and gas in SA, where OCGTs are running at 184 MW and CCGTs at 217 MW to supplement the 143 MW of wind. Tasmania is the clean outlier — 100% renewable, running entirely on 325 MW of hydro and 8.78 MW of wind, with a carbon intensity of 0 tCO2/MWh. QLD carries the heaviest carbon burden at 0.85 tCO2/MWh; NSW and VIC are both around 0.79 tCO2/MWh; SA sits at a much cleaner 0.29 tCO2/MWh.

Grid stress is elevated at 81.9 on the gridIQ score, warranting attention heading into the day. Weather conditions are benign in terms of demand — temperatures range from 11.3°C in TAS to 20.5°C in QLD, with no meaningful cooling load anywhere and only modest heating demand in TAS (6.7) and VIC (2.7). Solar generation will ramp as the morning progresses, which should ease SA prices and improve NEM-wide renewable penetration through the middle of the day, particularly given SA's clear skies (0% cloud cover). VIC and NSW are heavily overcast at 92% and 82% cloud cover respectively, so solar uplift there will be limited. Traders should watch SA prices soften through the late morning as rooftop and utility solar comes online, and monitor whether the V-SA flow holds or reverses as local generation builds.

One active market notice worth flagging: AEMO commissioned a new transmission line at Eraring — the Eraring BESS No.2P 330 kV connection — in NSW yesterday, adding grid infrastructure tied to the Eraring battery. Additionally, the Gas Supply Hub production environment is scheduled for maintenance outage from 31 March 19:00 to 1 April 05:00 AEST; participants relying on GSH interfaces for gas trading should plan around that window accordingly.