commodity demand vic — VIC1
Victoria's spot price sits at $124.33/MWh at 16:30 AEST with demand at 4,667 MW — a Saturday morning level that is running materially below the weekday peaks seen in the price history, where demand climbed to 5,832 MW and prices pushed toward $156/MWh during Thursday's morning peak. The current price is elevated relative to this demand level, reflecting a generation mix that is 82% brown coal and gas-dependent this morning, with wind contributing only 68 MW and solar generating nothing at 0 MW under 92% cloud cover. OCGT dispatch at 112 MW confirms peakers are online to support the pre-dawn ramp, adding cost to the stack.
The demand trajectory through the price history tells the key story for today's price sensitivity. As demand has risen from the overnight trough of around 4,085 MW (03:00 AEST) to the current 4,667 MW, prices have climbed from the low $80s to the $114–$124/MWh band, with each 200–300 MW demand increment adding roughly $10–$20/MWh to the RRP. This is a tight supply curve at present — the absence of solar through the morning (zero solar potential, 0 MW generation) means demand growth is absorbed entirely by dispatchable plant, and the brown coal baseload at 1,113 MW is already fully committed. Any demand spike above 4,800–5,000 MW risks pulling in higher-cost OCGT capacity, which has previously pushed prices to $144–$147/MWh in this dataset.
The Saturday demand profile limits upside risk from commercial and industrial load, with demand unlikely to challenge the 5,500–5,800 MW levels seen during Thursday's evening peak. Forecast prices for tonight's trading window cluster around $97–$98/MWh, consistent with demand easing back toward the 4,400–4,600 MW range as the day progresses without significant cooling demand (heating demand is only 2.7 kWh, temperature at 15.3°C). The absence of any demand-specific market notices and the confirmed price stability for the 10:05 interval suggest no administered price action is in play. Watch the 18:00–20:00 AEST window: Thursday's data shows demand rebounding to 5,500–5,650 MW in that period with prices holding around $93–$100/MWh, and a similar pattern tonight could push prices modestly above forecast if wind remains suppressed.