commodity demand sa — SA1
South Australia sits at $138/MWh with demand at 1,260 MW as of 16:30 AEST — a pre-dawn Saturday read that is notably elevated relative to the solar-driven trough seen earlier in the day. The price-demand relationship across today's data is stark: demand bottomed near 411 MW around 23:00 AEST last night with prices going negative (as low as -$8.33/MWh), while the morning ramp from roughly 1,180 MW through to a peak above 1,650 MW during the evening peak window drove prices into the $138–$172/MWh band. That correlation is tight and consistent — every demand surge above 1,500 MW has produced prices at or above $138/MWh, with intermittent spikes to $193/MWh and $262/MWh pointing to thin supply margins at those demand levels.
Demand is now rising from its overnight trough of around 1,180–1,200 MW recorded between roughly 14:00–14:30 AEST. The trajectory from that low is upward and accelerating, with demand climbing through 1,220 MW, 1,238 MW and 1,262 MW across the past 30 minutes. This morning ramp pattern mirrors the prior day's profile, where demand climbed from a similar overnight base to a peak of ~1,653 MW during the evening peak (18:30–19:10 AEST). If today tracks that profile — consistent with a mild 16.8°C Saturday with negligible solar potential and low wind (5.6 km/h, 0.3 wind potential) — the market should expect demand to breach 1,500 MW by mid-afternoon AEST and approach 1,600–1,650 MW between 18:00–20:00 AEST.
The price outlook for that demand trajectory points firmly to sustained pricing in the $110–$170/MWh range through the evening peak, with spike risk above $170/MWh if demand tracks toward the upper end of the prior day's range. Solar generation is currently zero and wind is contributing only 143 MW, leaving gas — 184 MW OCGT and 217 MW CCGT — as the dominant in-region source. With renewables effectively absent during the morning ramp and no solar uplift expected given zero solar potential, gas sets the marginal price all day. The grid stress score of 81.9 reflects this tight supply buffer. Demand-side managers with interruptible load should flag the 17:00–20:00 AEST window as the primary exposure period; the prior day's data shows that window consistently printed above $100/MWh and regularly touched the $110–$138/MWh floor set by gas dispatch economics.