Carbon Forecast

Tasmania is running at 0 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable generation — entirely hydro and wind — and has held that position across every interval in the dataset. That is the cleanest grid in the NEM by a substantial margin and presents an unambiguous opportunity for any carbon-sensitive load with Tasmanian exposure. South Australia sits at 0.29 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 49%, driven by 143 MW of wind and gas firming from CCGT and OCGT plant; intensity has been trending down through the early morning as wind picks up, and the afternoon solar ramp should push renewable penetration back toward 50% and beyond during the midday window.

NSW and QLD are the grid's carbon problem regions today. NSW sits at 0.79 tCO2/MWh with only 10% renewable penetration — 6,481 MW of black coal dominates the stack, with hydro contributing 620 MW and wind and solar barely registering at 99 MW combined at the 06:30 AEST trading interval. QLD is worse on renewable share at just 3.25%, with 2,468 MW of black coal and virtually no solar or wind dispatch yet; intensity is 0.85 tCO2/MWh. Both states show a consistent overnight coal baseload profile that has changed little across the last 24 intervals. VIC sits at 0.79 tCO2/MWh currently with 29% renewables, but that figure is deceptive — 1,113 MW of brown coal anchors the stack, the dirtiest fuel type on the NEM per MWh generated, and intensity spiked above 1.10 tCO2/MWh during the morning peak period in earlier intervals before easing as wind (68 MW) and hydro (98 MW) contributed more.

The clearest green windows for the remainder of today are in SA from approximately 10:00–17:00 AEST, where the solar ramp should push renewables well above 50% and intensity could test the 0.20–0.25 tCO2/MWh range — consistent with the 0.18 tCO2/MWh SA touched in overnight intervals when wind was strong. In NSW and QLD, solar generation will begin contributing from around 07:30–08:00 AEST onward, which historically shaves 0.05–0.10 tCO2/MWh off intensity through the middle of the day, but with the current mix composition, neither region will approach clean-grid territory today. VIC's intensity should remain elevated through the morning given brown coal's inflexibility, with modest improvement possible in the afternoon if wind lifts.

For scheduling carbon-sensitive loads: TAS is the first choice at any hour — intensity is zero and there is no signal it will change. SA is the second choice; target the 10:00–16:00 AEST solar window. Avoid NSW, QLD, and VIC for emissions-critical scheduling through at least mid-morning, and treat the NSW and QLD evening periods — when solar drops and coal reasserts full dominance — as the highest-intensity windows of the day.