regional vic — VIC1

The Victoria spot price sits at $147.50/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, the highest print of the morning session and up sharply from the overnight trough of $75.11/MWh recorded around 03:00 AEST. The 24-hour price trend tells a clear story: prices held in the $80–$102/MWh band through the early hours before climbing steeply from 05:00 AEST as demand ramped into the morning peak. Total demand is currently 5,601 MW, well up from the overnight low of approximately 4,092 MW. The generation mix at 06:00 AEST is dominated by brown coal at 907 MW, followed by hydro at 320 MW and gas OCGT at 283 MW. Wind is contributing just 138 MW and solar is producing zero output, consistent with pre-sunrise conditions and 80% cloud cover at a current temperature of 15.1°C.

Renewable penetration is thin this morning. The latest carbon data, timestamped 06:00 AEST (20:00 UTC on 19 March), shows renewables at 30.67% of the mix — but that figure reflects the previous evening's hydro-supported profile when wind was more active. The current fuel stack, with zero solar and 138 MW wind against 907 MW brown coal and 283 MW gas OCGT, points to a materially weaker renewable share right now, likely sub-20%. Carbon intensity stands at 0.7173 tCO2/MWh on the latest reading, though the morning's heavy brown coal commitment will push that figure higher as the interval data catches up. Grid stress scores at 68.8 out of 100 and renewable penetration scores at just 14.9, both consistent with a coal-heavy, high-demand morning. No active market notices are in place for VIC1 at this time.

Predispatch forecasts point to a meaningful price retreat as the morning progresses. The most recent predispatch runs place the 07:30 AEST half-hour at approximately $109.96/MWh, stepping down from current levels as solar generation begins to enter the stack and demand stabilises post-morning ramp. Optimal load windows identified in the forecast data cluster around the 07:30–08:30 AEST period, with forecast prices in the $90–$95/MWh range representing savings of up to $55/MWh against the current dispatch price — rated "good" quality by the scheduling model. The carbon trajectory will follow the same pattern: intensity should ease as rooftop and utility solar build through mid-morning, assuming cloud cover lifts from its current 80%. Flexibility operators and demand-response participants should note the window between approximately 07:30 and 09:00 AEST as the best load-shifting opportunity on today's profile.