regional tas — TAS1

The spot price in Tasmania sits at $119.59/MWh as of 16:30 AEST, with total demand at 1,109 MW — firmly in the morning peak ramp. That $119.59/MWh print represents a step up from the overnight floor, where prices held in the $96–$99/MWh band through the small hours, and marks a continuation of the upward trajectory that has been in play since around 15:00 AEST when prices broke above $106/MWh. The intraday pattern is clear: an overnight trough near $96.20/MWh, a brief spike to $152.78/MWh at 18:10 AEST, and a sustained $106–$120/MWh range through the shoulder and into the current peak. The 24-hour average sits comfortably above $100/MWh, reflecting Tasmania's tight morning supply stack as hydro is dispatched to meet rising commercial and industrial load.

The generation mix is entirely hydro-dominated. Hydro is generating 456 MW as of the 16:00 AEST trading interval, with wind contributing 0 MW and gas OCGT offline. Wind potential is rated at just 0.3 on current conditions — a light 5.9 km/h reading with 60% cloud cover and 11.6°C ambient temperature consistent with an early autumn morning in the state's northwest. Carbon intensity sits at 0 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 100%, a position Tasmania has held continuously across the entire price history dataset. The Basslink interconnector is implicitly active given local hydro output of 456 MW is well below total demand of 1,109 MW, meaning the balance is being drawn from the mainland or supplemented by storage dispatch — a configuration that keeps the carbon intensity credential intact.

Predispatch forecasts point to prices easing from the current $119.59/MWh back toward the $96–$106/MWh range through the remainder of the morning. The most recent forecast run (20:31 UTC, 06:31 AEST) has target prices at $96.35/MWh for the next 30-minute window, a meaningful pullback from spot. Earlier forecast runs from 18 March had been pricing the equivalent period at $122–$128/MWh, suggesting the dispatch outcome has come in softer than pre-day expectations. The predispatch trajectory across the next few trading periods clusters between $96.35/MWh and $107/MWh, indicating the peak is likely at or near its apex now. No active market notices are in place for TAS1 at this time.

For sustainability managers and flexible load operators, Tasmania remains the cleanest dispatch signal in the NEM — 0 tCO2/MWh and 100% renewable penetration without interruption. Grid stress scores at 68.8 and price stability at 55.7 flag that conditions are moderately tight but not distressed. The current $119.59/MWh print is likely a short-lived peak; predispatch signals a retreat to the mid-$90s within the next interval, making any deferrable load best held for the upcoming softer window rather than dispatched now.