regional qld — QLD1

The Queensland spot price sits at $72.75/MWh as of 16:30 AEST, a sharp retreat from the evening peak territory that dominated the past 24 hours. The overnight and early-morning session has been notably soft, with prices dipping as low as $54.10/MWh between 13:15 and 13:45 AEST, reflecting the low-demand overnight trough and thermal baseload oversupply. Demand currently sits at 6,537 MW, well below the daily peak of around 8,091 MW seen during last evening's peak trading window when prices were consistently holding $145–$160/MWh. The price trajectory across today's morning ramp has been orderly, with the pre-dawn period clearing in the $60–$88/MWh range before stabilising near $72–$93/MWh as demand built through the 14:00–16:30 AEST window.

The generation mix is heavily coal-dominated, as expected for a Queensland overnight-into-morning profile. Black coal is producing 2,232.94 MW, with hydro contributing 85.78 MW and gas OCGT providing a negligible 0.16 MW. Solar is at zero output, consistent with the 16:30 AEST settlement timestamp and 73% cloud cover reported. Renewable penetration is critically low at 1.58% on the most recent carbon intensity reading (06:00 UTC / 16:00 AEST), with grid carbon intensity sitting at 0.8526 tCO2/MWh — among the highest readings in the dataset and well above the daytime low of 0.7817 tCO2/MWh recorded during peak solar penetration around midday. Sustainability managers should note that this grid is essentially running on black coal right now, with no solar offset and minimal hydro support.

Predispatch forecasts point firmly to an evening price escalation. The most recent predispatch run pegs the 07:00 AEST (21:00 UTC) interval at $113.59/MWh, down from earlier predispatch estimates that had that same interval priced at $127–$233/MWh — a significant downward revision as the market has tightened its view with shorter forecast horizons. The evening ramp pattern from the price history is clear: yesterday's equivalent period saw prices surge from ~$110/MWh at 16:30 AEST to a sustained $133–$160/MWh band through the 18:00–21:00 AEST window, peaking at $160.39/MWh. Traders should position for a similar escalation today from approximately 17:00 AEST onwards as demand climbs toward the evening residential peak, with coal and gas peakers carrying the full load given zero solar contribution from this point forward.

No active market notices are recorded for QLD1 at this time. Grid stress scores at 68.8 out of 100 reflect the coal-heavy, low-renewable dispatch profile rather than any supply emergency. The autumnal equinox date (today is 20 March) is reducing solar hours meaningfully compared to summer peaks, and the 73% cloud cover further suppresses any residual generation. Flexible load operators have a narrow window of sub-$80/MWh pricing available now before the afternoon-to-evening ramp takes hold; the predispatch signal and yesterday's price shape both suggest the $130–$150/MWh band returns well before 19:00