regional nsw — NSW1

The NSW spot price sits at $154.44/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, tracking firmly above the morning ramp pattern that has pushed prices upward from overnight lows near $79–$90/MWh through the early hours. The morning build has been consistent: prices began lifting from ~$115/MWh around 15:00 AEST yesterday, climbing through the $134–$148/MWh range during the evening peak before easing overnight, then ratcheting back up from 05:00 AEST today as demand recovered from its overnight trough near 6,600 MW. Total demand now sits at 8,315 MW and is rising as the business day gets underway.

The generation mix is heavily coal-dependent this morning. Black coal is carrying 6,449 MW — approximately 78% of the in-region dispatch stack — with hydro providing 739 MW (9%). Wind is contributing just 59 MW and solar 94 MW, together accounting for roughly 1.9% of regional output. Both gas CCGT and OCGT are offline at zero MW. The most recent carbon intensity reading sits at 0.7688 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 12.63%, though that figure reflects a period when hydro was more meaningfully supplemented by other sources; the current solar contribution remains minimal given 43% cloud cover and near-zero solar potential this morning. Renewable penetration is set to improve through the mid-morning as solar generation builds, but the low wind resource (2.6 km/h) provides no meaningful uplift to that trajectory today.

Predispatch forecasts point to a price step-down through the day. The most recent predispatch run has NSW settling around $119/MWh for the next forecast window, with load optimisation windows clustering in the $105–$119/MWh range from approximately 07:30 AEST onward — a meaningful discount to the current $154.44/MWh. The overnight period from 08:00 AEST (18:00 UTC) consistently shows "good" quality load windows at $105–$106/MWh, suggesting the market anticipates supply conditions easing as morning demand peaks pass and rooftop solar begins to contribute. Grid stress scores at 68.8 and market conditions at 48.7 reflect a market under moderate but not extreme pressure. There are no active market notices for NSW1 at this time. Traders holding flexible load should watch the solar ramp window from approximately 08:30–11:00 AEST for the most attractive spot exposure today.