NEM Overview

Spot prices across the NEM are moderate to elevated this Friday morning, with SA leading at $161.88/MWh, NSW at $154.44/MWh, and VIC at $147.50/MWh. Queensland stands out as the clear outlier at $72.75/MWh — less than half the SA price — reflecting coal-heavy dispatch with virtually no renewable contribution (1.58% renewable penetration, 0.85 tCO2/MWh carbon intensity). The NSW–QLD spread of roughly $82/MWh is being enforced by a binding NSW1-QLD1 interconnector, currently flowing 434 MW north into QLD at its import limit. The N-Q-MNSP1 link is also binding, underscoring that transmission constraints are actively preventing Queensland's cheaper generation from suppressing southern prices. Tasmania sits at $119.59/MWh, fully hydro-backed and exporting 197 MW to Victoria via Basslink.

NEM-wide renewable penetration is low at 14.9% on the gridIQ score, consistent with the generation data. It is pre-dawn across all regions with solar contributing zero output everywhere. Wind is underwhelming — NSW is producing just 59 MW, VIC 138 MW, and SA 193 MW, against light wind speeds of 2.6–4.6 km/h across most of the mainland. SA's generation mix is gas-dominated (497 MW combined OCGT and CCGT), with wind covering only a fraction of the state's 1,515 MW demand despite SA recording the best renewable share at 44% — boosted by the V-SA interconnector importing 425 MW from Victoria. QLD's 2,233 MW of black coal is doing the heavy lifting with hydro contributing just 86 MW and gas negligible.

Grid stress scores 68.8/100, the most concerning reading in today's data. Market conditions score a soft 48.7, reflecting the inter-regional price divergence and constrained interconnectors. The binding NSW1-QLD1 and N-Q-MNSP1 links are the key structural feature to watch through the morning — any change in constraint status would compress the QLD-to-south price spread rapidly. As solar ramps from approximately 07:30 AEST onwards, expect downward pressure on midday prices across NSW and QLD in particular, though heavy cloud cover (73–80%) across VIC, SA, and QLD will limit the solar contribution relative to a clear-sky day. No active market notices are current.

Victoria's heating demand (2.9) and Tasmania's more pronounced heating signal (6.4) at 11.6°C are worth monitoring heading into the afternoon peak. VIC's 283 MW of OCGT dispatch at $147.50/MWh suggests the market is already paying a premium for dispatchable capacity, with brown coal at 907 MW forming the baseload backbone. Traders holding afternoon peak exposure in VIC and SA face upside risk if cloud suppresses solar through the day and heating demand builds.