commodity demand vic — VIC1

Victoria's spot price sits at $147.50/MWh at 16:30 AEST with demand at 5,601 MW, marking the second morning peak of the trading day. This price level is consistent with the pattern established through today's morning ramp — demand climbed from an overnight trough of around 4,092 MW at 13:00 AEST to above 5,600 MW by 16:30, pushing prices from the $75–$80/MWh range seen in the early hours to the current elevated level. The price-demand relationship has been tight through this morning ramp, with each 500 MW step up in demand broadly corresponding to a $20–$40/MWh lift in the spot price as peaking plant, including 334 MW of gas OCGT, is drawn into the merit order.

The overnight demand trough, bottoming at 4,092 MW around 13:00 AEST, saw prices compress to as low as $75.11/MWh, confirming that Victoria's supply stack has adequate baseload headroom — 917 MW of brown coal is running steadily through all periods. The morning ramp has been steep, adding over 1,500 MW of demand in roughly three and a half hours, which accounts for the price sensitivity now evident in the $130–$150/MWh band. Wind is contributing only 144 MW and solar is at zero given pre-dawn conditions, meaning the entire demand response is being met by thermal and hydro (318 MW), leaving the market exposed to any further demand lift without renewable offset.

The demand trajectory from here is the key price driver for the remainder of the day. Based on the observed pattern, demand is likely to ease slightly from the current 5,601 MW peak as the morning commercial ramp plateaus before a potential secondary evening peak — a pattern consistent with the price history showing the prior day's peak demand above 5,900 MW in the 18:00–19:00 AEST window at prices of $132–$146/MWh. If today tracks similarly, traders should watch for demand pushing toward 5,800–5,900 MW in the 17:00–19:00 AEST window, which is where the prior session saw the most sustained price pressure. The absence of any market notices removes tail-risk from constraint events, but the generation mix — heavily reliant on brown coal and OCGT with minimal renewables — means there is limited supply-side buffer if evening demand exceeds current dispatch assumptions.