commodity demand qld — QLD1

Queensland spot prices are at $72.75/MWh with demand sitting at 6,537 MW — a level that reflects the overnight trough following a sustained Friday morning build-up from around 5,750 MW at 13:30 AEST. The price-demand relationship today is tracking tightly: as demand climbed through the pre-dawn ramp from roughly 6,000 MW to above 6,500 MW between 15:00 and 16:30 AEST, prices held well below the $100/MWh mark, indicating adequate thermal headroom in the low-to-mid demand range. The current $72.75/MWh print sits at or near the overnight floor, consistent with sub-6,600 MW demand and minimal renewable contribution — solar generation is just 5.7 MW with 73% cloud cover suppressing any meaningful PV output today.

The price-demand dynamic sharpens significantly once demand crosses the 7,000–7,500 MW threshold, as the overnight and early-morning history makes clear. When demand peaked at 8,091 MW around 04:20 AEST, prices were running at $147–$160/MWh — a near-doubling from current levels. The evening peak tonight, typically arriving between 17:00 and 19:30 AEST, is the critical watch period. Demand trajectory through the afternoon will test whether the grid can absorb the ramp without the $130–$160/MWh prints seen during equivalent demand bands in recent sessions. With no solar relief available on a heavily overcast day, there is no midday demand suppression to ease the thermal stack ahead of the evening build.

Forecast data points to evening prices in the $113–$120/MWh range once demand eases from peak, but the path through 17:00–19:00 AEST carries material upside price risk. Demand-side participants with flexibility above the 7,000 MW threshold — particularly in the 17:30–18:30 AEST window — are operating in the most price-sensitive band of today's dispatch. Grid stress is scored at 68.8, reinforcing that supply margins are not comfortable once the evening load arrives.