Carbon Forecast

Tasmania is the standout at 0.00 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable generation from 527 MW of hydro — it has run zero-carbon across every interval in the dataset and remains the cleanest grid in the NEM by a wide margin. South Australia sits at 0.31 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 44%, a mix of 158 MW wind and 351 MW gas CCGT plus 174 MW gas OCGT carrying the evening load as solar has dropped to zero. Victoria is at 0.73 tCO2/MWh with 29% renewables — 144 MW wind and 318 MW hydro are partially offsetting 917 MW of brown coal and 334 MW of gas OCGT, producing the second-dirtiest intensity among the eastern mainland regions. NSW sits at 0.77 tCO2/MWh with only 12% renewables; 6,529 MW of black coal dominates the stack and solar contribution (99 MW) remains minimal this early in the morning. Queensland is the dirtiest region at 0.85 tCO2/MWh, with 2,222 MW of black coal and just 86 MW hydro and 6 MW solar providing a negligible 1.9% renewable share.

The trajectory through today is shaped by the solar ramp. NSW and QLD both carry very low rooftop and utility solar penetration in the current interval data, but as the autumn solar arc builds through mid-morning, expect intensity in both regions to ease modestly — NSW data from earlier intervals shows intensity compressed to around 0.76 tCO2/MWh in the late-afternoon solar and wind window, while QLD dipped to approximately 0.78 tCO2/MWh around midday. Neither region delivers a compelling green window given the coal-dominated baseload. SA's cleanest period today has already passed — overnight wind drove intensity below 0.04 tCO2/MWh in the early hours — and the evening gas commitment is pushing intensity back toward 0.31–0.35 tCO2/MWh as renewables fade. Victoria's afternoon and early evening intervals showed intensity falling to 0.71–0.74 tCO2/MWh as wind and hydro lifted renewable share above 30%, suggesting that window is either current or just closing.

For carbon-sensitive load scheduling: Tasmania remains the unconditional first choice for flexible industrial or data centre loads at any time of day. SA is best scheduled in the overnight-to-early-morning wind window (roughly 23:00–08:00 AEST) when intensity regularly falls below 0.05 tCO2/MWh. On the mainland, the next viable green window in NSW and QLD will be the solar shoulder from approximately 09:00–15:00 AEST, though intensity will only ease to the 0.78–0.82 tCO2/MWh range — acceptable for shifting discretionary load away from the coal-heavy overnight trough but not a low-carbon event in absolute terms. Avoid scheduling high-emission-sensitive loads in QLD after 17:00 AEST; the data shows intensity climbing back above 0.84 tCO2/MWh as solar exits and coal carries full evening demand with near-zero renewable support.