regional vic — VIC1
The Victoria spot price sits at $134.31/MWh as of 16:35 AEST, sustaining a run of elevated pricing that has held above $120/MWh for most of the morning peak. This follows a clear intraday pattern: overnight prices tracked between $80–$100/MWh before a step-change upward from around 14:15 AEST, with the ramp accelerating through the 15:00–16:35 window as demand climbed to 5,750 MW. The day's intraday low sat near $58.50/MWh during the solar shoulder period, giving a wide spread of roughly $76/MWh between trough and current price — a signal of tight evening supply conditions now materialising.
The generation mix is heavily weighted towards brown coal at 1,610 MW, supplemented by gas OCGT at 648 MW. Wind is contributing only 262 MW and hydro 97 MW, with solar at zero given the pre-dawn trading interval. Total local renewable output is therefore minimal, sitting at roughly 14% of the generation mix captured in this interval — consistent with the latest carbon intensity reading of 0.7967 tCO2/MWh at 25.1% renewable penetration, which itself reflects a period earlier in the evening when wind output was stronger. With 98% cloud cover and near-zero wind potential (4.7 km/h), today's renewable resource is severely constrained. Grid stress scores 76.2 out of 100, reinforcing the tightness visible in spot pricing.
Predispatch forecasts point to prices easing from current levels, with the forward curve for the 07:00 AEST trading period sitting in the $121.55/MWh range — still firmly elevated but below the $134/MWh being printed now. Earlier predispatch runs from the morning targeted that same period at $105–$124/MWh, and the most recent run has revised upward, reflecting the demand and supply conditions materialising this evening. The trajectory suggests prices will remain above $110/MWh through the peak and ease toward the $80–$95/MWh range as demand falls post-20:00 AEST, consistent with the load window analysis showing fair-to-good windows emerging from 07:00 UTC (17:00 AEST) onward.
No market notices are currently active for VIC1. Carbon-conscious operators should note the intensity of 0.7967 tCO2/MWh is relatively favourable against Victoria's brown-coal baseline — the earlier carbon history shows intensity peaked above 1.04 tCO2/MWh during midday when wind was weakest and coal was carrying near-full load. Flexibility managers targeting low-cost load windows should look to the post-peak trough from approximately 18:30–20:00 AEST where forecast prices drop to the $65–$80/MWh range, offering savings of up to $49/MWh against current levels.