regional sa — SA1

The SA1 spot price sits at $141.57/MWh at 16:35 AEST, sustaining an elevated morning ramp that has held above $125/MWh for most of the past two hours. This marks a sharp step up from the overnight trough, where prices traded in the $88–$105/MWh band between midnight and 04:00 AEST, and represents a continuation of the pre-dawn escalation that began around 14:35 AEST when prices broke above $121/MWh and climbed steadily through $154/MWh at 15:50 AEST before settling at current levels. Total demand sits at 1,525.5 MW, up from the overnight floor of approximately 1,265 MW, consistent with the morning commercial load build. No active market notices are present for SA1 at this time.

Wind is the sole renewable contributor in the current generation mix, producing 433 MW. Solar output is zero — consistent with the pre-sunrise window — and OCGT gas is offline. Gas CCGT is providing 230.6 MW of thermal backup, giving a combined visible dispatch of roughly 664 MW against metered demand of 1,525.5 MW; the balance is being drawn via the Heywood and Murraylink interconnectors from Victoria. The most recent carbon intensity reading (06:30 UTC / 16:30 AEST) stands at 0.0772 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 84.25%, reflecting strong overnight wind output suppressing gas dispatch. As solar ramps through the morning and wind conditions remain soft — current wind speed is just 5.2 km/h with 76% cloud cover — the renewable share will depend entirely on wind performance, and carbon intensity is likely to drift higher as gas CCGT load increases to cover the solar deficit.

Predispatch forecasts point to a meaningful price softening through the day. The most recent forecast runs place SA1 prices in the $107–$130/MWh range for the coming intervals, with later afternoon windows showing load optimisation opportunities priced between $65–$98/MWh — savings of $40–$73/MWh against current spot. The price signal through the early hours of this morning (04:15–05:50 AEST) showed a run of intervals above $121/MWh through to $154/MWh before the current consolidation, suggesting gas CCGT was setting the cap with limited wind support. Traders should note that with OCGT offline and interconnector flows carrying significant load, any reduction in Victorian export availability or a spike in grid stress — currently scored at 76.2 out of 100 — could re-test the $140–$170/MWh range seen at this same time period on the prior trading day. Price stability is scored at 67.5, confirming the volatility risk remains elevated for the balance of the morning peak.