regional qld — QLD1

The Queensland spot price sits at $145.99/MWh at 16:35 AEST, continuing a firm morning ramp that began around 14:35 AEST when prices lifted sharply from the overnight trough. The current price is running well above the overnight nadir of ~$83/MWh seen during the 12:00–13:00 UTC window (22:00–23:00 AEST), and aligns with the elevated pre-dawn range of $130–$170/MWh that characterised the 04:30–06:30 AEST period. The 24-hour price trend shows a classic mid-summer Queensland shape: cheap midday solar suppression followed by a sharp late-afternoon climb, with peak pricing of $231.70/MWh hit around 03:25–03:30 UTC (13:25–13:30 AEST local equivalent on the prior trading day) and $179.89/MWh sustained across the 03:00–03:55 UTC window.

Generation is overwhelmingly coal-dominated at the 16:30 UTC dispatch interval. Black coal is producing 2,471.97 MW, hydro is contributing 86.37 MW, gas OCGT is providing a negligible 0.12 MW, and rooftop or utility solar is registering just 0.9 MW — reflecting 93% cloud cover and zero measured solar potential in current weather conditions. Total scheduled generation sits well below reported demand of 6,696.7 MW, indicating significant behind-the-meter, interconnector, or unregistered generation filling the gap. Renewable penetration is effectively negligible in the registered stack right now; the latest carbon intensity reading of 0.8329 tCO2/MWh confirms Queensland's grid is running heavily on thermal plant, with renewable penetration recorded at just 3.59% in the most recent carbon interval. That intensity figure has been largely stable between 0.83–0.85 tCO2/MWh overnight and through the morning, with only a brief dip to 0.73–0.75 tCO2/MWh during peak solar hours when rooftop PV was active earlier in the day.

Predispatch forecasts point to prices holding in the $133–$155/MWh range into the evening peak, with the most recent forecast runs targeting around $144.55/MWh for the next trading window. No market notices are currently active for QLD1. Grid stress scores at 76.2 out of 100 indicate the system is under meaningful pressure, consistent with thermal dominance, limited renewable support, and demand tracking toward the evening peak — total demand of 6,696.7 MW this interval is on a rising trajectory that typically reaches 7,500–8,200 MW in the 07:00–09:00 UTC (17:00–19:00 AEST) window based on the prior day's pattern, where prices spiked to $231.70/MWh. Traders should anticipate continued price support above $130/MWh through to at least 19:00 AEST, with spike risk elevated given tight thermal dispatch and negligible renewable contribution.