NEM Overview

Spot prices across the NEM are sitting in a tight $110–$148/MWh band this morning (17:35 AEST), with NSW1 leading at $148/MWh against total demand of 8,488 MW, followed by QLD1 at $146/MWh and SA1 at $142/MWh. Tasmania is the clear outlier at $110/MWh, underpinned by 592 MW of hydro carrying virtually the entire load — the only region running at 100% renewable penetration and 0 tCO2/MWh. The NSW–QLD interconnector (NSW1-QLD1) is the one binding constraint in the network, with flows sitting hard against its import limit at -236 MW, which is contributing to the price premium in NSW relative to QLD despite near-identical demand profiles.

NEM-wide renewable penetration is low at 17.1%, and the generation mix reflects it. NSW is dominated by 6,338 MW of black coal with a negligible combined 51 MW from wind and solar — heavy overcast and near-calm winds (1.9 km/h, 100% cloud cover) are suppressing both resources entirely. QLD is in a similar position with 2,466 MW of black coal and zero solar output. Victoria is running 1,610 MW of brown coal alongside 648 MW of gas OCGT, with wind contributing only 262 MW — cloud cover sits at 98% and wind speeds are minimal. SA is the relative bright spot: wind is producing 437 MW against a small 1,526 MW load, giving the region roughly 85% renewable penetration, though gas CCGT is still on at 229 MW to firm supply. Carbon intensity is elevated across the eastern mainland — QLD at 0.82 tCO2/MWh, VIC at 0.80 tCO2/MWh, NSW at 0.78 tCO2/MWh.

Grid stress scores 76.2/100, reflecting the binding NSW–QLD interconnector, coal-heavy dispatch, and the absence of solar across all regions. The V-SA interconnector is exporting 275 MW from Victoria into SA, well within its 609 MW export limit, providing adequate firming cover for South Australia. Tasmania is feeding 44 MW north into Victoria via Basslink at its import limit — marginal but not a concern given Tasmania's strong hydro position. No market notices are currently active. Solar penetration will remain negligible through the morning given complete overcast across NSW, VIC, and QLD; traders should not expect any midday price relief from rooftop or utility solar until cloud cover breaks, which current conditions do not support today.