Interconnector Watch

236 MW is flowing north on QNI from NSW into Queensland at 06:35 AEST, and that interconnector is binding on its import limit — the only binding constraint across the NEM right now. QNI's import limit sits at exactly -236.16 MW, meaning the link is fully loaded in the NSW-to-QLD direction and AEMO cannot dispatch any additional northward flow to arbitrage the $2.01/MWh NSW-QLD price spread. That spread is narrow but the constraint is real: Queensland at $145.99/MWh sits $2.01 above NSW at $148.00/MWh — wait, NSW is actually the higher-priced region at $148.00/MWh versus QLD at $145.99/MWh, yet flow is heading north into QLD. This reflects the binding constraint preventing the market from fully equilibrating; if QNI were unconstrained, the dispatch engine would reduce northward flow or reverse it to let cheaper NSW energy push prices down in NSW and up in QLD until they converge.

On the southern interconnectors, VIC-NSW (Heywood's northern counterpart) is carrying 376.89 MW north from Victoria into NSW, utilising roughly 38% of its 997.47 MW export capability — well clear of its limit and not binding. Victoria at $134.31/MWh is the cheapest mainland region, and that price differential is driving the northward flow toward NSW at $148.00/MWh. There is meaningful headroom on this link, so Victorian generators have access to the NSW market without constraint at present.

Heywood is exporting 274.74 MW from Victoria into South Australia against an export limit of 608.74 MW — roughly 45% utilised and not binding. SA sits at $141.57/MWh, sitting $7.26/MWh above Victoria, which is consistent with Victoria supplying SA via both Heywood and Murraylink simultaneously. Murraylink adds a further 27 MW westward from VIC to SA, running at 28% of its 98 MW export limit. Neither link is under stress. Basslink is carrying 44.23 MW from Tasmania into Victoria and is sitting precisely at its import limit of 44.23 MW, though AEMO has not flagged it as binding in the current dispatch solution. Tasmania at $110.49/MWh — the cheapest region in the NEM — is exporting at the cable's effective ceiling in this direction, and that $23.82/MWh discount to Victoria is the driver. The Directlink (N-Q-MNSP1) between NSW and QLD is at zero flow, adding nothing to NEM-wide arbitrage at this interval. No constraint market notices are active across the NEM at this time.