commodity demand vic — VIC1

Victoria's spot price sits at $134.31/MWh with total demand at 5,750 MW, and prices have been rising in lockstep with demand since around 4:15 AEST this morning. The demand ramp from the overnight trough of roughly 4,060 MW at 1:00 AEST to the current 5,750 MW — a lift of nearly 1,700 MW in under six hours — has driven prices from the low-$90s/MWh range into the $130s/MWh, with a brief spike to $145.69/MWh at 4:50 AEST as gas OCGT generation (565.9 MW currently dispatched) stepped in to cover the morning load build. The price-to-demand relationship is tight this morning: every incremental 200–300 MW of demand above the 5,000 MW threshold is consistently producing $10–$20/MWh upward price pressure as brown coal baseload (1,619 MW) reaches its operational ceiling and peaking plant prices in.

Demand is still climbing — the trajectory from 5,320 MW at 6:00 AEST to 5,750 MW at 6:35 AEST represents a 430 MW gain in 35 minutes, and there is no sign of a plateau yet. Solar generation is currently zero with 98% cloud cover, meaning today's daytime price relief from rooftop and utility solar will be significantly curtailed compared to a clear autumn day. Wind is contributing only 276.6 MW — well below typical capacity — leaving the generation mix heavily weighted towards brown coal and gas, a combination that keeps the supply stack expensive once demand exceeds 5,500 MW.

The morning peak is not yet resolved. If demand continues tracking toward the 5,800–5,900 MW range seen in recent equivalent periods (with the history showing 5,881 MW earlier this week), prices are likely to remain firm in the $125–$145/MWh band through the 7:00–8:00 AEST window before solar — even under cloud — provides modest relief and demand eases toward the mid-morning trough. Demand-side participants should note the grid stress score of 76.2 out of 100, which reflects constrained supply headroom at current demand levels. The afternoon ramp from approximately 15:00 AEST onward presents a second elevated-price window; the price history pattern from comparable days shows a sustained $115–$133/MWh corridor during the 16:00–18:00 AEST peak, and with wind potential at just 0.2 today, there is limited renewable buffer to soften that ramp.