commodity demand tas — TAS1

Tasmania sits at 1,129 MW and $110.49/MWh as of 16:35 AEST, with demand having climbed sharply through the morning ramp — up from an overnight trough of around 860 MW when prices were holding in the $99/MWh range. The demand-price relationship is clear in today's data: the morning build from ~880 MW at 14:00 AEST through to the current 1,129 MW has pushed the spot price from the sub-$100/MWh territory seen during the overnight and midday troughs to the current $110.49/MWh, with a brief spike to $117.12/MWh at 15:50 AEST as demand cleared 1,058 MW. The pattern is consistent — TAS1 prices remain anchored near $106/MWh through most of the demand build, but discretionary hydro dispatch tightens as load approaches the 1,100–1,130 MW zone, producing upward price pressure.

Demand is now at a level consistent with the day's shoulder-peak range, sitting just below the morning high of ~1,163 MW reached around 16:20–16:40 AEST. With the evening residential load ramp still ahead — typically pushing TAS1 demand to its daily peak between 18:00 and 20:00 AEST — prices are likely to remain at or above current levels. The price history shows the 1,050–1,100 MW range consistently attracting $106–$107/MWh dispatch, and demand above 1,100 MW has produced spikes into the $107–$117/MWh band today. Generation is currently hydro-dominated at 670 MW with only 33 MW of wind contributing, leaving hydro as the marginal price-setter throughout the demand build. Gas OCGT remains offline, consistent with conditions not yet justifying peaking plant activation.

The overnight demand trough — bottoming near 860 MW between approximately 11:00 and 13:00 AEST — produced the day's softest pricing at $88–$96/MWh, a spread of roughly $22/MWh against current conditions. For demand-side managers, the window between 23:00 AEST tonight and 05:00 AEST tomorrow represents the next low-price opportunity, with overnight demand historically returning to the 870–910 MW range and prices tracking back toward the $99–$105/MWh band based on the settled overnight dispatch pattern. The evening peak risk period runs from approximately 18:00 to 21:00 AEST; the single $165/MWh spike seen at 05:35 AEST on 19 March is a reminder that brief tightness events remain possible when demand is elevated and hydro scheduling shifts between trading intervals.