commodity demand qld — QLD1
Queensland spot price sits at $145.99/MWh with demand at 6,697 MW as of 16:35 AEST — a morning ramp that has pushed prices firmly above the $130–135/MWh range that characterised the overnight trough. Demand is climbing from the overnight low of approximately 5,800 MW reached around 12:10–12:40 AEST, tracing a textbook morning ascent. The price response to this demand build has been sharp: every 500 MW of incremental load added since the pre-dawn floor has added roughly $15–25/MWh to the spot price, with the most acute sensitivity appearing above 6,400 MW where thermal plant on the margin begins to price more aggressively.
The price-demand relationship today is tighter than overnight, when demand of 5,800–6,000 MW cleared at $83–100/MWh. By 14:35 AEST with demand crossing 6,461 MW, prices had already lifted to the $146–$150/MWh band, and they are holding there now. The generation mix confirms why: black coal is carrying 2,472 MW, solar is contributing a negligible 0.9 MW in these early morning conditions, and hydro adds just 86 MW. With renewables effectively absent from the mix at this hour, every increment of demand is met by thermal capacity priced at the higher end of the stack.
The demand trajectory today points directly to an elevated afternoon peak. Based on the price history embedded in the data, Queensland demand reached 8,276 MW around 07:05 AEST on the reference period, with spot touching $231.70/MWh at the 8,012 MW mark. Today's morning ramp is tracking consistently with that profile. Expect demand to push toward 7,500–8,000+ MW through the 15:00–18:00 AEST window as commercial and residential cooling loads peak in 21.5°C conditions with 93% cloud cover suppressing any solar relief. That combination — high thermal dependence, no solar contribution, and demand approaching the 8,000 MW threshold — sets the conditions for prices to retest the $170–230/MWh range seen in the reference evening peak.
There are no active market notices flagged for Queensland today. Demand-side managers with curtailment flexibility should note the afternoon peak window as the primary high-price exposure period; the overnight and mid-morning troughs at sub-$100/MWh have already passed for today.