Carbon Forecast

Tasmania is running at 0 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable generation — hydro and wind covering the entire load with zero fossil fuel dispatch. South Australia is the next cleanest at 0.08 tCO2/MWh, with wind supplying 433 MW and renewables at 84% penetration this morning; a small gas CCGT block of 231 MW is the only thermal contribution. These two regions are the clear green windows on the NEM right now and have been consistently clean through the overnight period.

NSW and Queensland are the dirtiest regions at 0.78 tCO2/MWh and 0.83 tCO2/MWh respectively. In NSW, black coal is generating 6,389 MW — roughly 90% of in-state thermal output — with wind contributing just 18 MW and solar 30 MW, leaving renewables at 11%. Queensland is similarly coal-dominated, with 2,472 MW of black coal and negligible solar (0.9 MW) at this early morning interval; renewables sit at just 4%. Victoria sits at 0.79 tCO2/MWh: brown coal is producing 1,619 MW and gas OCGT a further 566 MW, with wind at 277 MW providing some offset but only 25% renewable penetration overall.

The trajectory through today points to moderate improvement in NSW and QLD as solar ramps from approximately 08:00 AEST, with NSW renewables historically peaking around 15–17% penetration during midday solar hours based on today's early data pattern. SA will likely dip slightly as morning demand rises and gas CCGT increases dispatch, but should hold below 0.20 tCO2/MWh through the day. VIC intensity will remain elevated above 0.85 tCO2/MWh until wind picks up this afternoon — yesterday's trend showed a VIC improvement toward the 18:00–20:30 AEST window as wind strengthened into the evening.

For carbon-sensitive load scheduling: schedule flexible industrial and commercial loads in Tasmania now and throughout the day without reservation. SA is a strong second option, particularly during the 23:00–05:00 AEST overnight window where renewables have been sustaining above 85–90% penetration. In NSW and QLD, target the 10:00–14:00 AEST solar window for any discretionary loads — that is the best available green window in those regions today. Avoid NSW and QLD during the 20:00–07:00 AEST period when solar is absent and coal carries full baseload; intensity in those regions runs above 0.82 tCO2/MWh consistently through those hours.