regional vic — VIC1

Victoria's spot price sits at $122.29/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, elevated against the overnight trough of $97–$100/MWh that held through the early hours. The morning ramp is well established — prices climbed steadily from $109/MWh at 15:00 AEST, broke above $120/MWh by 15:10 AEST, and touched $147.50/MWh during the late-afternoon peak period before easing back into the current range. Demand sits at 5,694 MW, consistent with a typical Tuesday morning load profile following the overnight low of around 4,280 MW.

The generation mix is heavily weighted to brown coal, which is contributing 1,675 MW — the dominant baseload source. Gas OCGT is dispatched at 542 MW to cover the morning demand step-up, with solar contributing 0 MW (pre-sunrise) and wind at just 125 MW. Hydro adds 70 MW. Renewable penetration is 14.15% and carbon intensity sits at 0.9127 tCO2/MWh, both reflecting the coal-heavy overnight and early-morning stack. Carbon intensity peaked at 1.0854 tCO2/MWh during the pre-dawn period when renewables were at their lowest (below 9%) and has been gradually improving as wind lifts. No active market notices are recorded for VIC1.

Predispatch forecasts point to a softening price trajectory through the morning. The most recent predispatch run has VIC1 easing back toward the $97–$100/MWh range as solar generation comes online and demand stabilises across the business day. Grid stress is scored at 78/100 — the highest of the gridIQ scorecard metrics — reflecting the current reliance on thermal dispatch and limited renewable headroom. Price stability scores 65.2/100 and market conditions 53.6/100, both signalling a moderately tight but not stressed market. The 93% cloud cover and near-zero solar potential today will constrain rooftop and utility solar contribution, keeping the coal and gas stack active throughout daylight hours and limiting any midday price dip that clear-sky conditions would typically deliver.

Flexibility-seeking operators should note that the overnight load windows (10:00–11:30 AEST) indicated forecast prices around $97–$100/MWh — the day's best value band — and that period has passed. The next comparable window is not clearly defined given the suppressed solar outlook; watch the 19:00–21:00 AEST band as demand falls from the evening peak for any sub-$100/MWh opportunity.