regional tas — TAS1
The spot price in Tasmania sits at $98.22/MWh as of 16:30 AEST, demand at 1,106.68 MW — up sharply from the overnight trough of around 809 MW recorded in the early hours. The price is marginally above the dominant floor of $96.16–$96.24/MWh that has characterised the bulk of the trading day, with brief intraday spikes reaching $140.04/MWh during the 21:00–21:30 AEST window and sustained elevated pricing in the $106–$129/MWh band through the afternoon peak period roughly 01:00–08:30 AEST. Current pricing is settling back toward that $96–$98/MWh base as demand stabilises in the morning ramp.
The generation mix is entirely renewable. Hydro is contributing 572.8 MW and wind 84.23 MW, with gas OCGT at zero output. Total visible scheduled generation sits at 657 MW against a region demand of 1,106.68 MW, with the balance almost certainly covered by Basslink import from Victoria. Carbon intensity registers at 0 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable penetration — a position Tasmania has held continuously across the entire carbon history dataset. Temperature this morning is 11.3°C with 100% cloud cover, zero solar potential, and a heating demand index of 6.7, consistent with the demand profile trending upward through the morning as the state moves into the working day.
Predispatch forecasts point to prices consolidating in the $96.16–$97.11/MWh range through the remainder of today and into overnight, with no material upside signal in the forward curve. The forecast trajectory shows no repeat of the afternoon spike conditions seen in the $115–$129/MWh range earlier, suggesting dispatchers have sufficient hydro flexibility to cover the evening ramp without price pressure. No active market notices are recorded for TAS1 at this time.
For traders and load managers, the outlook is benign — prices are anchored near the regional floor with the hydro-dominated, zero-carbon stack providing strong price dampening. The key watch remains Basslink flow direction and volume; if Victorian prices firm through the morning, import economics could shift and nudge Tasmanian prices modestly higher, but the predispatch data does not currently signal this.