regional sa — SA1
$124/MWh is the current SA spot price at 06:30 AEST, with total demand sitting at 1,521 MW. The generation mix is split between gas CCGT at 376.63 MW and wind at 271.71 MW, with solar contributing nothing at this pre-dawn hour and gas OCGT offline. Wind is carrying roughly 42% of local dispatch, with gas covering the remainder. The broader price context is elevated: SA has been trading persistently above $110/MWh through the overnight window, with a sharp spike to $286.89/MWh during the 20:50–21:10 AEST window and multiple excursions to $170.44/MWh sustained across the morning peak. The 24-hour average is tracking well above $130/MWh, indicating a structurally tight dispatch environment rather than isolated volatility.
Carbon intensity sits at 0.4308 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at just 21.82% — a marked deterioration from the overnight low of 0.0753 tCO2/MWh and 84.64% renewables recorded around 14:30 AEST, when wind was dominating. The transition from clean overnight conditions to gas-heavy morning dispatch is now fully established. Sustainability managers tracking Scope 2 emissions exposure today should note this is a materially carbon-intensive window; the grid is not expected to recover significant renewable share until solar comes online later in the morning, assuming cloud cover clears — current conditions show 98% cloud cover with zero solar potential, which suppresses any rooftop or utility solar contribution for the near term.
Predispatch forecasts point to prices easing to approximately $108/MWh by 07:00 AEST and holding in the $108–$115/MWh range through to at least 09:30 AEST. No market notices are currently active for SA1. The load window analysis confirms the 07:00 AEST half-hour as the best available dispatch window today, rated "good" with implied savings of around $52 against a higher reference price. Grid stress scores at 74.4 and renewable penetration score at 16.4 out of 100 confirm the region is operating under constrained, gas-dependent conditions this morning. Traders with exposure to SA should expect prices to remain anchored in the $110–$140/MWh band until solar generation begins to push renewables back toward the 40–50% range mid-morning.