regional qld — QLD1
The Queensland spot price sits at $128.20/MWh at 16:30 AEST, well above the overnight trough where prices bottomed out near $0.73–$5.30/MWh during peak solar hours around 18:55–19:05 AEST. The morning ramp has been steep and sustained, with prices climbing from $104/MWh at 16:00 AEST through a series of dispatch intervals ranging $118–$145/MWh between 15:10 and 16:25 AEST, peaking at $144.67/MWh at 16:10 AEST. Demand sits at 6,524 MW and is rising as the business day loads up, tracking well above the overnight low of around 5,550 MW seen during the solar window.
The generation mix is heavily coal-dominated. Black coal is supplying 2,628.61 MW, hydro contributes 85.90 MW, solar is generating just 5.72 MW — consistent with pre-dawn conditions — and gas OCGT output sits at a negligible 0.29 MW. Renewable penetration is 2.62%, which is the post-sunset floor with no wind data present in the mix. Carbon intensity sits at 0.8463 tCO2/MWh, marginally lower than the overnight high of 0.8566 tCO2/MWh recorded earlier but still firmly in coal-heavy territory. Queensland's carbon intensity will improve materially once solar generation ramps from around 07:30 AEST, where history shows intensity drops towards 0.68–0.69 tCO2/MWh and renewable penetration reaches 20–22%.
Predispatch forecasts point to price moderation through the remainder of the morning. The most recent forecast runs show prices easing from the current $128/MWh range back towards $92–$95/MWh through the 07:00–09:30 AEST window as solar generation builds and demand stabilises. Load-shifting windows rated "good" quality appear clustered around 11:30–12:00 AEST (prices forecast at $73–$84/MWh) and again at 11:30 AEST at $73.69/MWh — the lowest forecast price in the window set — representing savings of up to $47.78/MWh against the current price. No market notices are active for QLD1 at this time.
Grid stress scores at 74.4 out of 100 reflect the tightness of this morning ramp, with market conditions scored at 52.6 and renewable penetration score at 16.4 — both consistent with a coal-dominated pre-solar dispatch window. Traders and large energy users should expect price relief once solar begins contributing meaningfully from approximately 07:30 AEST, with the midday window the primary opportunity for flexible load activation today.