regional nsw — NSW1

The NSW spot price sits at $137.67/MWh as of 16:30 AEST, well above the overnight trough of around $65/MWh but easing from the morning peak of $176.74/MWh recorded at 01:30 AEST. The 24-hour price profile has been sharply bimodal: a sustained pre-dawn shoulder of $103–$105/MWh through the small hours, a pronounced morning ramp that crested above $176/MWh between 01:00–02:00 AEST, and a gradual descent through the afternoon back toward current levels. Total demand sits at 8,367 MW, consistent with a typical Tuesday morning commercial load profile.

The generation mix is dominated by black coal at 6,448 MW, which accounts for roughly 85% of in-region dispatch. Hydro is contributing 839 MW — providing meaningful flexibility — while solar is producing just 118 MW and wind 52 MW at the most recent trading interval. Gas CCGT and OCGT are both offline at zero output. Renewable penetration sits at 14.1% on the latest carbon reading, a modest improvement on the overnight low of ~8% but well below the midday high of 19% seen earlier today when solar peaked. Carbon intensity is 0.74 tCO2/MWh, down from the overnight peak of 0.83 tCO2/MWh. With 100% cloud cover and zero solar potential per current weather data, solar generation is unlikely to improve materially this morning.

Predispatch forecasts point to prices settling in the $104–$107/MWh range across the next several trading intervals through to around 07:30–08:00 AEST, with the load-shifting windows data flagging a "good" quality opportunity emerging around the 11:30–12:00 AEST window at prices dipping toward $84–$92/MWh as solar re-emerges or overnight coal output cycles down. Grid stress scores at 78/100, indicating the network is operating under elevated but not critical conditions, and there are no active market notices for NSW1 at this time. Flexibility holders and demand-response participants should note the sustained $100+/MWh base across overnight hours is markedly elevated relative to historical autumn averages, with no gas peaking plant providing the usual price cap backstop.