NEM Overview

Spot prices across the NEM sit in a tight $98–$138/MWh band this morning, with NSW1 the most expensive region at $137.67/MWh against total demand of 8,367 MW. Queensland follows at $128.20/MWh, South Australia at $124.00/MWh, and Victoria at $122.29/MWh. Tasmania is the clear outlier at $98.22/MWh, underpinned by its fully renewable hydro-and-wind mix running at 0 tCO2/MWh. The NSW1-QLD1 interconnector is binding at its import limit of -496.68 MW, constraining northward flow from NSW into Queensland and contributing to Queensland's price premium relative to Victoria — a spread worth watching as the morning demand ramp progresses.

NEM-wide renewable penetration is low at 16.4%, reflecting pre-dawn conditions across all regions with solar output at zero everywhere. Coal is carrying the mainland: NSW alone has 6,448 MW of black coal online, and Victoria is running 1,675 MW of brown coal backed by 543 MW of gas OCGT. Queensland's generation mix is almost entirely black coal at 2,681 MW, with renewable penetration at just 2.56% and carbon intensity at 0.85 tCO2/MWh — the dirtiest region on the grid right now. South Australia is the mainland bright spot, with 263 MW of wind delivering 27.31% renewable penetration and carbon intensity of 0.40 tCO2/MWh, well clear of the coal-dominated states. Victoria sits at 0.91 tCO2/MWh, the highest intensity in the NEM.

Grid stress is elevated at 78/100, and with 100% cloud cover blanketing NSW, Victoria, SA, and Tasmania — and near-complete overcast in QLD — solar recovery through the morning will be negligible across the board. Wind speeds are subdued in NSW (2.9 km/h) and QLD (2.2 km/h), limiting wind contribution where it's most needed. SA's 11.5 km/h winds are sustaining its 263 MW wind output, and Tasmania's 668 MW of combined hydro and wind continues to export 59.82 MW northward via Basslink into Victoria. No market notices are active. The combination of binding interconnector constraints on NSW-QLD, suppressed renewables, and coal-heavy dispatch means price stability remains fragile heading into the morning peak — traders should monitor the NSW1-QLD1 constraint closely as demand builds.