Interconnector Watch

At 16:30 AEST, the Queensland Interconnector (QNI) is the standout story: it is binding at its import limit of -496.68 MW, with 496.69 MW flowing from NSW into Queensland. QNI is at effectively 100% of its import capacity, and this hard constraint is directly driving the $9.47/MWh premium Queensland carries over NSW ($128.20 vs $137.67/MWh inverted — Queensland is priced below NSW despite importing, reflecting local Queensland generation keeping a lid on prices even as the interconnector saturates). The binding constraint means no additional cheap NSW energy can flow north, locking in the current Queensland price independently of NSW market conditions.

VIC-NSW is carrying 505 MW northbound toward NSW, sitting at 67% of its 758.9 MW export limit with room to move before binding. This flow is consistent with Victoria's lower price of $122.29/MWh relative to NSW's $137.67/MWh — a $15.38/MWh spread that is incentivising the northward push. Heywood is exporting 136 MW from Victoria into South Australia against an export limit of 514.57 MW, utilised at just 26%, and the modest $1.71/MWh spread between SA ($124.00/MWh) and VIC ($122.29/MWh) reflects that easy arbitrage is already largely cleared. Murraylink adds a token 9 MW westbound into SA, well within its 89 MW export limit and non-binding.

Basslink is exporting 59.82 MW from Tasmania to Victoria and is sitting exactly at its import limit of 59.82 MW — technically at the boundary of binding on the Tasmanian export side. Tasmania's $98.22/MWh price, the lowest in the NEM today, reflects its hydro-heavy generation stack, and Basslink is channelling that cheap energy northward at full current capacity. The $24.07/MWh spread between Tasmania and Victoria is the widest bilateral differential on the network right now, suggesting Basslink is effectively flow-constrained and preventing full price convergence. Murraylink's Vic-to-SA leg (V-S-MNSP1, 9 MW) is negligible in market impact terms.

No constraint notices are active in AEMO's market systems at this time, but traders should note two effectively saturated links — QNI binding on import and Basslink at its import limit — are the key transmission choke points shaping today's regional price stack. Any uplift in Queensland demand or a Victorian price spike will not be relieved via QNI given its current binding state. Grid engineers managing re-dispatch or ancillary services in Queensland should treat the region as electrically isolated from NSW incremental dispatch for this interval.