commodity demand qld — QLD1
Queensland spot prices are elevated at $128.20/MWh with demand sitting at 6,524 MW — a morning ramp that has driven prices sharply higher through the 16:00–18:00 AEST window. The price-demand relationship is pronounced in today's data: as demand climbed from a overnight trough of around 5,560 MW toward the evening peak of 8,220 MW, spot prices escalated from near-zero and briefly negative territory during the midday solar window to a intraday high of $144.67/MWh at 16:10 AEST. That 580 MW demand step between 15:30 and 16:00 AEST — driven by residential and commercial afternoon load — triggered a $140/MWh price surge in under 30 minutes, illustrating the tight supply stack Queensland is operating against this morning.
Demand is now declining from that evening peak, tracking the typical post-peak residential rolloff. The overnight trajectory through today should see demand ease toward the 5,500–5,800 MW range during the early hours AEST before the morning ramp begins again around 06:00 AEST. Today's morning ramp is already underway, with demand at 6,524 MW at 16:30 UTC (02:30 AEST) and prices holding above $128/MWh. The generation mix explains the price floor: black coal is carrying 2,629 MW with solar providing just 5.72 MW at this hour, leaving the grid heavily dependent on thermal capacity priced at the higher end of the offer stack.
The forward demand trajectory shapes today's key price risk squarely in the afternoon peak window. Based on the pattern established in recent intervals, demand will likely push toward 7,500–8,000 MW again between 07:00–09:00 UTC (17:00–19:00 AEST), the period where prices consistently cleared $110–$133/MWh. Carbon intensity sits at 0.8463 tCO2/MWh with renewables at just 2.62% of the mix — solar generation will build through the Queensland morning and compress midday prices as it did in the prior day's session, when prices dropped to near zero between 08:00–12:00 AEST on demand around 5,500 MW. Demand-side participants with flexibility to shift load into the 08:00–14:00 AEST window face a meaningful arbitrage of $80–$120/MWh relative to today's forecast peak pricing.