Carbon Forecast

Tasmania is running at 0.00 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewables — hydro (573 MW) and wind (84 MW) carrying the entire load with zero fossil dispatch. South Australia is the next cleanest at 0.43 tCO2/MWh with wind (272 MW) providing around 22% of supply alongside gas CCGT (377 MW) doing the heavy lifting; SA's intensity has been drifting up since its overnight low near 0.07–0.10 tCO2/MWh when wind penetration was above 80%, and it sits at a relatively elevated level for this time of morning. NSW is at 0.75 tCO2/MWh on 13% renewables, dominated by 6,421 MW of black coal with hydro (867 MW) providing meaningful but insufficient clean cover. Victoria is the dirtiest mainland region at 0.91 tCO2/MWh — 1,664 MW of brown coal sets a hard emissions floor, wind (115 MW) and hydro (112 MW) contribute only 15% renewables, and 542 MW of gas OCGT is currently running. Queensland sits at 0.85 tCO2/MWh with 2,629 MW of black coal dominating and just 2.6% renewable penetration — solar has barely ramped with only 6 MW online at this pre-dawn hour.

The overnight data tells a clear story about today's green windows. SA ran its cleanest period between roughly 00:30 and 05:00 AEST, with intensity dipping to 0.075 tCO2/MWh and renewable penetration hitting 85% — that window has closed. NSW troughed around 0.71–0.73 tCO2/MWh during the 20:30–23:30 AEST period on solar-assisted midday generation, reaching nearly 19% renewables. Queensland followed a similar solar-driven pattern, reaching 0.68 tCO2/MWh and 23% renewables around midday before fossil generation reclaimed dominance through the evening. Victoria's cleanest window was earlier in the evening at 0.87 tCO2/MWh — brown coal suppresses any meaningful clean trough regardless of solar contribution.

For today's outlook, the NEM-wide green window will materialise between approximately 09:00 and 14:00 AEST as utility solar ramps across NSW and Queensland. Based on the pattern from equivalent intervals in the data, NSW intensity should fall toward 0.71–0.73 tCO2/MWh and QLD toward 0.68–0.72 tCO2/MWh during peak solar hours, with renewable penetration in both regions likely exceeding 20%. Victoria will see only modest improvement given brown coal's inflexibility — expect intensity to remain above 0.95 tCO2/MWh through most of the day. SA's trajectory depends on wind; current wind output of 272 MW is well below the overnight peaks and intensity will remain in the 0.38–0.45 tCO2/MWh band unless wind strengthens.

Carbon-sensitive load scheduling recommendations: prioritise Tasmania for any flexible loads with interconnector access — it is the only region with a structurally zero-carbon profile today. For mainland operations, target the 10:00–13:00 AEST window in NSW and QLD to capture