regional vic — VIC1
Victoria's spot price sits at $93.38/MWh at 16:30 AEST, demand at 5,631 MW and climbing through the morning peak. This is the continuation of an elevated price regime that has been running since approximately 01:40 AEST, when prices broke above $57/MWh after the overnight transition from a prolonged negative-price window. The 24-hour context is stark: prices traded deeply negative through the solar generation window — bottoming at -$19.99/MWh around 00:35 AEST — before reversing sharply into the evening peak, where prices sustained above $100/MWh for an extended period between roughly 06:05 and 07:55 AEST. The current $93.38/MWh reading reflects demand ramping hard into the Monday morning peak, with prices having tracked $85–$93/MWh across the last hour.
The generation mix is dominated by brown coal at 2,185 MW, accounting for the bulk of scheduled output. Wind is contributing 449.74 MW and hydro 82.42 MW, with gas OCGT providing 100.75 MW of peaking support. Solar sits at 0 MW — consistent with pre-sunrise conditions and 100% cloud cover confirmed by weather data. Total renewable penetration stands at 27.69%, up materially from the 11–15% range that persisted through the overnight period when wind was underperforming. Carbon intensity is 0.8533 tCO2/MWh, an improvement from the 1.04–1.05 tCO2/MWh recorded across the 01:00–05:30 AEST window when brown coal was carrying nearly the entire load at low overnight demand. The grid stress score of 68.1 and price stability score of 63.1 reflect the current tightening conditions as demand ascends.
No predispatch forecasts or market notices are present in the data feed for VIC1 at this time. With solar at zero and cloud cover at 100%, there is no rooftop or utility solar relief expected until conditions clear — and the weather data shows zero solar potential, suggesting the suppressed solar window that drove negative prices midday on Sunday is unlikely to repeat at the same depth today. Demand is tracking above 5,600 MW and rising; if wind output holds near current levels, prices are likely to remain in the $85–$100/MWh band through the peak, with the $100/MWh threshold a credible ceiling absent any gas CCGT commitment or interconnector support from NSW or SA. Sustainability managers should note that this morning's procurement window carries one of the higher carbon intensities of the past 24 hours — the optimal low-carbon window has already passed.