regional tas — TAS1

Tasmania's spot price sits at $96.76/MWh with total demand at 1,088.8 MW as of 06:30 AEST — firmly in the morning ramp. Prices have been remarkably stable over the past 24 hours, trading almost exclusively in the $96–$107/MWh band with the exception of a brief spike to $156.10/MWh at 01:45 AEST and a fleeting $124.33/MWh print earlier in the session. The current price is broadly in line with the 24-hour average, which clusters tightly around the $96–$97/MWh floor, suggesting hydro dispatch is anchoring the market at a consistent marginal cost level. No predispatch forecast data is available in this interval, so intraday price trajectory cannot be confirmed from PASA; traders should monitor Basslink flows and mainland Victorian pricing for directional cues into the afternoon peak.

Generation is entirely renewable at this interval. Hydro accounts for 476 MW of the 485.26 MW dispatched from local plant, with wind contributing a modest 9.25 MW. Gas OCGT is at zero. That 476 MW hydro output against 1,088.8 MW of total demand implies Basslink is importing approximately 603 MW from Victoria to meet the shortfall — a significant mainland dependency that exposes TAS1 to any Victorian price pressure or interconnector constraint events today. Carbon intensity sits at 0 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable penetration, a condition that has held continuously across the entire carbon history dataset stretching back over 24 hours.

Weather conditions are cool and still — 10.7°C, 3.7 km/h wind, 100% cloud cover, and zero solar potential. Heating demand reads at 7.3 (index units), consistent with the elevated morning load profile visible in the demand ramp from ~820 MW at 02:00 AEST to 1,088.8 MW now. Wind potential is effectively zero at 0.1, meaning the 9.25 MW wind contribution is near-negligible and unlikely to grow through the day. With no active market notices and no forecast or load window data populated, the key risk for today is any Basslink derating or Victorian price spike feeding through to TAS1 during the evening peak, when demand typically pushes toward the 1,050–1,100 MW range seen in recent evening sessions.