regional sa — SA1
The SA spot price sits at $138/MWh at 16:30 AEST, well above the overnight baseline but consistent with the evening demand ramp now underway. Total demand is 1,577 MW and climbing. This morning's pre-dawn period told a completely different story: prices were deeply negative from around 07:00–15:30 AEST, bottoming at -$16/MWh as solar and wind flooded a low-demand grid. The swing from negative territory to $138/MWh in under three hours is the defining feature of today's market so far, with a brief $225/MWh spike at 05:40 AEST flagging supply tightness at the front edge of the evening ramp.
The current generation mix is dominated by gas, which is carrying the load as solar output sits at 0 MW. Gas CCGT contributes 355 MW and gas OCGT adds 87 MW, with wind providing 225 MW — the only renewable source active at this interval. That puts wind at roughly 34% of visible local generation. Carbon intensity is 0.3237 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 40% — a significant deterioration from the overnight position, when renewables were above 87–90% and carbon intensity was as low as 0.049 tCO2/MWh. The grid is now operating in a gas-heavy evening configuration.
The overnight price history reveals a stark daily cycle. From 10:00 AEST yesterday through to mid-afternoon today, prices were at or below zero as rooftop and utility solar suppressed demand to as low as 246 MW net. The transition back to positive pricing kicked in around 15:40 AEST and prices have escalated sharply since, with the $138/MWh level now anchoring the upper band. The earlier price spike to $360.55/MWh at 19:00 and 18:50 AEST yesterday confirms that this region is capable of sharp excursions when demand peaks and gas capacity tightens. No forecast data or market notices are currently active in the dataset, but the trajectory from the predispatch-implied price history points to sustained elevated pricing through the 17:00–20:00 AEST window as demand peaks near 1,800 MW — the level reached in last evening's equivalent period.
Grid stress scores at 68.1/100 and price stability at 63.1/100 confirm the market is in a moderately stressed state. Renewable penetration score of 16.4/100 reflects how sharply the daytime solar advantage has eroded into the evening. With 100% cloud cover and wind speed at only 6.9 km/h, there is no solar upside and minimal wind uplift available to cap prices. Traders and large energy users should treat $120–$175/MWh as the likely operating range for the next two to three hours, with spike risk remaining while gas OCGT capacity is the marginal unit.