regional qld — QLD1
Queensland's spot price sits at **$95.28/MWh** at 16:30 AEST, up sharply from the overnight trough where prices repeatedly went negative — bottoming at **-$12.86/MWh** around 23:00–23:10 AEST during peak solar suppression. The morning ramp has been aggressive: prices were in the $60–$65/MWh band through the pre-dawn hours, then accelerated through $85–$97/MWh from 15:15 AEST onward as demand climbed to its current **6,488 MW**. The 24-hour price trend is a textbook solar duck — deep negatives midday, steep evening ramp — and today is tracking that same shape again.
Generation is dominated by **black coal at 3,034 MW**, with hydro contributing **86 MW** and solar a negligible **6 MW** at this pre-dawn interval. Gas OCGT output is effectively zero at **0.19 MW**. Renewable penetration sits at just **2.65%** — entirely consistent with the overnight carbon-heavy profile. Carbon intensity is **0.8552 tCO2/MWh**, among the highest readings of the past 48 hours; the grid was cleaner yesterday afternoon when solar was peaking and renewables briefly reached **14.9%** penetration around 01:30 AEST. With solar output near zero this early, coal is carrying the full baseload obligation and intensity will remain elevated until sunrise drives the solar fleet online, likely pulling intensity back toward **0.75–0.77 tCO2/MWh** through the 07:00–09:00 AEST window.
No active market notices are recorded for QLD1 and no predispatch forecasts are loaded in this dataset. Based on the price trajectory already established — $91.90/MWh at 16:00, $93.16 at 16:05, $95.28 at 16:30 — the morning peak is still building. Demand is rising toward what the price history shows as a daily peak zone above **7,600 MW** around 04:00–05:00 AEST; if today mirrors yesterday's evening peak, prices in the **$85–$97/MWh** range are likely to persist for the next two to three hours before softening. Grid stress scores at **68.1/100** and price stability at **63.1/100** confirm the market is in an elevated but not extreme state — watch for any coal unit trip or interconnector constraint that could push prices materially higher during this demand build.