regional nsw — NSW1

The NSW spot price sits at $104.65/MWh as of 16 March 06:30 AEST, holding a sustained run above $100/MWh that began around 06:00 AEST. This marks a sharp morning ramp from the overnight base of $65–$77/MWh and represents the highest sustained price level in the current price history window. Demand sits at 7,808 MW and rising, consistent with the Monday morning workday step-up. The pre-dawn period from approximately 04:10–04:15 AEST saw a brief spike to $105/MWh before settling back, confirming the current $104.65/MWh level is not an isolated aberration but a genuine market tightening as thermal plant re-stacks into the morning peak.

The generation mix is heavily coal-dominated. Black coal is carrying 5,990.81 MW, which accounts for roughly 87% of in-region output. Hydro is contributing 580.2 MW (about 8%), while wind sits at just 71.84 MW and solar at 79.05 MW — combined renewables total approximately 151 MW, or under 3% of the current dispatch stack. Gas CCGT and OCGT are both at zero, meaning there is no gas peaking support active in-region at this interval. This near-total absence of flexible peaking capacity is a notable grid characteristic this morning: coal and hydro are doing all the work.

Carbon intensity is tracking at 0.7944 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 9.73%. The intensity figure is broadly consistent with the overnight range of 0.79–0.83 tCO2/MWh and well above the midday low of 0.74–0.75 tCO2/MWh seen when solar output peaks. The solar_potential reading is currently zero and cloud cover sits at 100%, meaning today's solar contribution will be suppressed throughout the morning and potentially the full day — this is a key factor keeping the grid carbon-heavy and renewables anchored near their current low share. Wind potential is also negligible at 1.9 km/h, so no dispatch relief is expected from variable renewables during the peak window.

No active market notices are present for NSW1. Forecasts and load windows data are not populated. With no predispatch forecast data available, the trajectory read must come from the price history pattern: prices have been consistently printing $85–$105/MWh since approximately 04:00 AEST and the demand curve is still climbing into the full morning peak. Grid stress scores at 68.1/100 and price stability at 63.1/100 confirm elevated but not extreme conditions. Without solar relief and with gas offline, prices are likely to remain in the $85–$105/MWh range through the peak unless demand plateaus or hydro dispatch increases. The afternoon solar window — typically the main price suppressant in NSW — carries high uncertainty today given 100% cloud cover.