NEM Overview

SA1 is the priciest region on the NEM right now at $138/MWh, a notable premium above NSW1 ($104.65/MWh), QLD1 ($95.28/MWh), TAS1 ($96.76/MWh), and VIC1 ($93.38/MWh). The SA premium is explained directly by interconnector constraints: V-SA is binding at its export limit of 491.47 MW, capping Victorian supply into the state, while local generation leans heavily on gas — 355 MW of CCGT and 87 MW of OCGT are setting price alongside 225 MW of wind. Total NEM-wide demand sits at approximately 22,594 MW across the five regions, with conditions moderate for a mid-March Monday morning.

Renewable penetration is weak across most of the mainland this interval, consistent with the NEM-wide score of 16.4%. NSW1 is the standout laggard at just 9.73% renewables — 5,991 MW of black coal is doing the heavy lifting there, with wind and solar contributing a combined 151 MW against total demand of 7,808 MW. QLD1 is even more coal-dominated at 2.65% renewable share, with 3,034 MW of black coal and barely any solar output (6.4 MW) given it's pre-dawn. VIC1 sits at 27.69% on the back of 450 MW of wind, though 2,185 MW of brown coal remains the baseload anchor. SA1 reaches 39.96% renewable share from wind alone. Tasmania is 100% renewable at 0 tCO2/MWh, running on 476 MW of hydro, with Basslink flat at 0 MW flow — no export into Victoria this interval.

100% cloud cover across NSW, VIC, SA, and TAS eliminates any solar upside for the morning. QLD has partial cloud at 47% but solar potential reads near zero, consistent with early-morning timing. Wind conditions are soft NEM-wide — speeds are low in NSW (1.9 km/h) and QLD (3.9 km/h), limiting renewable headroom through the morning peak. As demand builds toward the 08:00–09:00 AEST business ramp, gas and coal will remain on the margin. The grid stress score of 68.1 reflects the binding interconnector constraints and coal-heavy dispatch — watch SA pricing if wind output softens further or the V-SA constraint tightens.

No active market notices are in force. The NSW–QLD interconnector is carrying 639 MW northward into NSW, well within limits, providing some buffer. Traders should monitor SA closely through the morning peak given the binding V-SA constraint and gas-dominated local stack.