Load Advisor
Predispatch forecast data is unavailable for this briefing, so the load-shifting windows below are based on current spot prices and typical NEM intraday price shape for a Monday in late-summer/early-autumn. Operators should cross-check against AEMO's live predispatch data before committing schedules.
Across the NEM, SA1 is the most expensive region right now at $138/MWh, with NSW1 at $104.65/MWh, TAS1 at $96.76/MWh, QLD1 at $95.28/MWh, and VIC1 the cheapest at $93.38/MWh. These are early-morning prices reflecting overnight baseload conditions. The solar ramp is imminent — typically underway by 08:30–09:00 AEST on a clear autumn Monday — and prices across all regions will fall materially as utility-scale and rooftop PV generation builds through the mid-morning. For flexible operators in SA1 and NSW1 especially, there is a strong case to defer any shiftable load that is running right now.
The optimal consumption window across all regions will be approximately 10:00–14:30 AEST, when solar generation is at or near its daily peak, net demand is at its seasonal trough, and spot prices historically compress toward $30–$60/MWh or lower. SA1 routinely sees negative or near-zero prices during this window on clear days given its high solar penetration, making it the strongest savings opportunity in the NEM today. VIC1 and QLD1 will also offer low-cost windows in this period. Flexible loads in SA1 — industrial, water treatment, HVAC pre-cooling, EV charging — should target this 10:00–14:30 window as the primary scheduling band.
The evening peak is the primary period to avoid. Demand will lift from approximately 16:30 AEST as solar output drops and commercial and residential load rises simultaneously. Prices across NSW1, SA1, and VIC1 will likely push above $150–$300/MWh between 17:30–20:00 AEST, with SA1 carrying the highest spike risk given its reliance on gas peakers once solar exits. QLD1 afternoon peaks tend to be somewhat flatter but still warrant load deferral after 16:00 AEST. TAS1 is the most insulated region from evening volatility given its hydro-dominated supply stack, but interconnector flows will tie it partially to mainland price movements.
Concrete recommendation: shed or defer flexible load now in SA1 and NSW1, hold through the solar ramp, maximise consumption between 10:00 and 14:30 AEST, and ensure all non-essential flexible load is off or curtailed by 16:30 AEST ahead of the evening ramp. Operators with battery assets should target full charge by 14:00 AEST and position for dispatch into the 18:00–19:30 peak window.