commodity demand vic — VIC1

Victoria spot price sits at $93.38/MWh with demand at 5,631 MW at 16:30 AEST, continuing the sharp morning ramp that began around 15:00 AEST when demand crossed 4,000 MW and prices flipped from deeply negative territory into positive. The demand lift of roughly 1,600 MW across that two-hour window drove prices from sub-zero to the current $90+ range, a clear demonstration of the grid's price sensitivity at this demand level — each incremental 100 MW of Monday morning load is pulling the market up through the $65–$95/MWh band occupied by gas peakers and higher-cost dispatch.

The overnight pattern tells the full story of today's price structure. Between 17:00 and 21:00 AEST, demand collapsed from ~4,800 MW to a trough below 2,400 MW as solar generation peaked and suppressed net load, with prices cratering to -$20/MWh at worst. That solar-driven midday demand destruction is now fully reversed — solar contributes 0 MW at 16:30 AEST and wind sits at just 450 MW, leaving brown coal (2,185 MW) and OCGT peakers (101 MW) carrying the bulk of supply into a rising demand profile. The generation mix at this interval is carbon-heavy at 0.8533 tCO2/MWh with only 27.69% renewables, materially better than overnight's sub-15% readings but still predominantly coal-dispatched.

The Monday morning ramp is not yet complete. Demand at 5,632 MW is tracking toward a likely evening peak in the 5,800–6,000 MW range as Melbourne households return home into a cool 17.5°C evening with 100% cloud cover — heating demand is modest (score 0.5) but residual load will climb. With no CCGT online, zero solar contribution, and wind output low at 450 MW, the marginal price-setter through the 17:00–20:00 AEST window will be OCGT and interconnector flows. Expect prices to hold in the $85–$120/MWh range through the peak, with upside risk if demand exceeds 5,900 MW or wind underperforms current output levels.